New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>December 2022 another month below pcp, but some positives as well</li><li>1H23 a soft result, made to look worse vs. a record 1H22</li><li>Pulling back FY23 EBITDAF again as there is no sign yet wholesale electricity market conditions are changing in favour of CEN</li></ul>

December 2022 another month below pcp, but some positives as well1H23 a soft result, made to look worse vs. a record 1H22Pulling back FY23 EBITDAF again as there is no sign yet wholesale electricity market conditions are changing in favour of CEN

Contact Energy: Feeling Pain Whilst Awaiting Rain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditions</li><li>Looking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developments</li><li>We see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery</li></ul>

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditionsLooking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developmentsWe see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

<ul><li>Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highs</li><li>Valuations ease, but sector remains over-valued</li><li>Wind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers</li></ul>

Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highsValuations ease, but sector remains over-valuedWind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

<ul><li>Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium prices</li><li>MEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply more</li><li>Big earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact</li></ul>

Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium pricesMEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply moreBig earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

<ul><li>October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuations</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li></ul>

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuationsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generatorsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Contact Energy: Feeling Pain Whilst Awaiting Rain

Contact Energy's (CEN) big challenge is short-term earnings momentum, with wholesale electricity market conditions seemingly conspiring against it;...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA]...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

The story of November 2022 was the record high 97% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources, well north of the previous record of...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

NZAS is set to remain open as the focus on decarbonisation means the economics of hydro-backed aluminium smelters have never looked better; We have...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising...

Forsyth Barr

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