Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.</li><li>Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.</li></ul>

Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

<ul><li>Morning from Europe.</li><li>Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.</li><li>On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe.Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Investments in commodities and gold as a percentage share of family offices money remain very little, as this year’s Global Family Office Report by UBS shows.</li><li>When asked how they are defying the volatile environment, respondents most frequently cite the selection of managers and/or active management (40%), followed by hedge funds (31%).</li><li>Almost as many family offices are increasing their holdings of illiquid assets (27%) and more than a quarter (26%) are focusing on high-quality bonds with short maturities. </li></ul>

Investments in commodities and gold as a percentage share of family offices money remain very little, as this year’s Global Family Office Report by UBS shows.When asked how they are defying the volatile environment, respondents most frequently cite the selection of managers and/or active management (40%), followed by hedge funds (31%).Almost as many family offices are increasing their holdings of illiquid assets (27%) and more than a quarter (26%) are focusing on high-quality bonds with short maturities. 

<ul><li>The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.</li><li>According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.</li><li>The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.</li></ul>

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Outperformers: Uranium, Coal &amp; Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers, which benefitted from renewed institutional interest and long-term structural tailwinds.</li>
<li>Underperformers: Gold Miners, Energy, and Select Coal. Despite a +5.2% increase in the gold price, key miners such as Barrick Gold (-7.6%) and Agnico Eagle (-0.9%) underperformed</li>
<li>Equities vs Commodities. There was a notable decoupling between equity and commodity performance this month.</li>
</ul>


Outperformers: Uranium, Coal &amp; Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers, which benefitted from renewed institutional interest and long-term structural tailwinds.
Underperformers: Gold Miners, Energy, and Select Coal. Despite a +5.2% increase in the gold price, key miners such as Barrick Gold (-7.6%) and Agnico Eagle (-0.9%) underperformed
Equities vs Commodities. There was a notable decoupling between equity and commodity performance this month.


United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen. Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Morning from Europe. Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by...

Steno Research

Family Offices Don’t Like Commodities

Investments in commodities and gold as a percentage share of family offices money remain very little, as this year’s Global Family Office Report by...

The Commodity Report

Gold About To Lose Its Shine?

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long...

The Commodity Report

Commodity Equity Monitor: May 2025 Issue

Outperformers: Uranium, Coal & Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers which benefitted from...

DBX Commodities

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