Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.</li><li>Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.</li><li>But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market</li></ul>

Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

<ul><li>On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)</li><li>That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…</li><li>Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.</li></ul>

On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

<ul><li>El Nino trades tend to get discussed as futures positions - long Cocoa, long Sugar, short whatever the weather is punishing this month.</li><li>That is the obvious layer. The less obvious one sits in equities of companies whose operating margins are already so thin that a commodity price move which barely registers for a diversified producer can flip a loss-making segment into a meaningfully profitable one.</li><li>Sudzucker is a live example of exactly that setup, playing out right now.</li></ul>

El Nino trades tend to get discussed as futures positions - long Cocoa, long Sugar, short whatever the weather is punishing this month.That is the obvious layer. The less obvious one sits in equities of companies whose operating margins are already so thin that a commodity price move which barely registers for a diversified producer can flip a loss-making segment into a meaningfully profitable one.Sudzucker is a live example of exactly that setup, playing out right now.

Undiscovered Gems of the El Nino - Suedzucker

<ul><li>Believe it or not but here is a sustained copper inventory overhang at the moment. Credit to Saxo Bank for covering.</li><li>Ample supply could limit near term upside in copper spreads and prices…</li><li>Price action isn’t looking strong at the moment as well…</li></ul>

Believe it or not but here is a sustained copper inventory overhang at the moment. Credit to Saxo Bank for covering.Ample supply could limit near term upside in copper spreads and prices…Price action isn’t looking strong at the moment as well…

2026 Commodity Alpha is in Agri not in Metals

<ul><li>Traders are hunting hard for short opportunities in commodities right now.</li><li>With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.</li><li>The grain market, though, could soon offer a cleaner setup – reason enough to take a dedicated look here.</li></ul>

Traders are hunting hard for short opportunities in commodities right now.With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.The grain market, though, could soon offer a cleaner setup – reason enough to take a dedicated look here.

Where the Short Sits in Grains – and Where It Doesn’t

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.

The Commodity Report

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino...

The Commodity Report

Undiscovered Gems of the El Nino - Suedzucker

El Nino trades tend to get discussed as futures positions - long Cocoa, long Sugar, short whatever the weather is punishing this month.

The Commodity Report

2026 Commodity Alpha is in Agri not in Metals

Believe it or not but here is a sustained copper inventory overhang at the moment. Credit to Saxo Bank for covering. Ample supply could limit near...

The Commodity Report

Where the Short Sits in Grains – and Where It Doesn’t

With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)