Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 -- CoreWeave (CRWV US) . </li>
<li>Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.</li>
<li>According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.</li>
</ul>


One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 -- CoreWeave (CRWV US) . 
Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.
According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.


CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coreweave-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44471:1" rel="noopener">CoreWeave (CRWV US)</a> is forecasted to be added to snp TMI at the June 2025 review after failing the fast-entry fcap threshold of $2bn. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coreweave-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44471:1" rel="noopener">CoreWeave (CRWV US)</a> is ineligible in 2025 for inclusion to Global-F and rasel due to public voting rights below 5%. </li>
<li>Lock-Up expiry causes free float thus public voting rights to increase above 5%. Addition to Global-F SmallCap and R1000 is expected in March and June 2026, respectively.
</li>
</ul>



CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to snp TMI at the June 2025 review after failing the fast-entry fcap threshold of $2bn. 

CoreWeave (CRWV US) is ineligible in 2025 for inclusion to Global-F and rasel due to public voting rights below 5%. 
Lock-Up expiry causes free float thus public voting rights to increase above 5%. Addition to Global-F SmallCap and R1000 is expected in March and June 2026, respectively.



CoreWeave (CRWV US): Global & US Index Exclusion Over Low IPO Float & Public Voting Rights

<ul>
<li>CoreWeave priced a down-sized transaction of 37.5mm shares at $40.00 ($7 Below the Original $47-$55 range) and opened at $39.00 for a loss of 2.5% at first trade</li>
<li>According to our underwriter sources, the deal finished multiple-times oversubscribed with the top three accounts getting 50% of the deal and the top 15 accounts taking down 90% of the transaction.</li>
<li>This IPO in particular was a difficult deal to value for IPO investors based upon being a "first mover" in the AI space.</li>
</ul>


CoreWeave priced a down-sized transaction of 37.5mm shares at $40.00 ($7 Below the Original $47-$55 range) and opened at $39.00 for a loss of 2.5% at first trade
According to our underwriter sources, the deal finished multiple-times oversubscribed with the top three accounts getting 50% of the deal and the top 15 accounts taking down 90% of the transaction.
This IPO in particular was a difficult deal to value for IPO investors based upon being a "first mover" in the AI space.


CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): IPO Opens Below Issue, Closes Flat in Debut Session

<ul>
<li>According to sources, the deal is being reworked with significant share size reduction and a downwardly-revised price.</li>
<li>Ultimately, a smaller size transaction with a more attractive valuation will make this IPO easier to digest. </li>
<li>We lack conviction in this IPO at this time and believe that investors looking to have a long-term position in the company may be better suited as an aftermarket participant. </li>
</ul>


According to sources, the deal is being reworked with significant share size reduction and a downwardly-revised price.
Ultimately, a smaller size transaction with a more attractive valuation will make this IPO easier to digest. 
We lack conviction in this IPO at this time and believe that investors looking to have a long-term position in the company may be better suited as an aftermarket participant. 


CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV): IPO Terms Being Reworked at Eleventh Hour; Caution Needed

United States

CoreWeave, Inc. provides software solutions and cloud services. The Company offers cloud infrastructure platform that manages the complexity of engineering, assembling, running, and monitoring state-of-the-art infrastructure at a massive scale to deliver high performance and efficiency to AI workloads. CoreWeave serves customers worldwide.

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CoreWeave (CRWV US)

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