Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Perplexity hit $100M ARR in March 2025, re-accelerating to 17% CMGR3, up from 12% in Q4 2024.</li><li>In March 2025, Perplexity partnered with Deutsche Telekom to pre-install Perplexity Assistant on its new AI Phone.</li><li>Perplexity rolled out a new visual search experience for shopping across hotels and travel in March 2025.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Perplexity hit $100M ARR in March 2025, re-accelerating to 17% CMGR3, up from 12% in Q4 2024.In March 2025, Perplexity partnered with Deutsche Telekom to pre-install Perplexity Assistant on its new AI Phone.Perplexity rolled out a new visual search experience for shopping across hotels and travel in March 2025.

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

SmartStop Self Storage REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SmartStop priced a full-size deal of 27.0mm shares at $30.00 and opened for trading at $32.40 for a gain of 8% at first trade.</li>
<li>The offering finished five-times oversubscribed with the underwriter stating that the deal had sizable participation from long-only and REIT-dedicated accounts.</li>
<li>A low-risk storage unit company which pays a monthly dividend, like SmartStop, attracted the right buyer for this deal to work given the current economic environment.</li>
</ul>


SmartStop priced a full-size deal of 27.0mm shares at $30.00 and opened for trading at $32.40 for a gain of 8% at first trade.
The offering finished five-times oversubscribed with the underwriter stating that the deal had sizable participation from long-only and REIT-dedicated accounts.
A low-risk storage unit company which pays a monthly dividend, like SmartStop, attracted the right buyer for this deal to work given the current economic environment.


SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

<ul>
<li>CoreWeave priced a down-sized transaction of 37.5mm shares at $40.00 ($7 Below the Original $47-$55 range) and opened at $39.00 for a loss of 2.5% at first trade</li>
<li>According to our underwriter sources, the deal finished multiple-times oversubscribed with the top three accounts getting 50% of the deal and the top 15 accounts taking down 90% of the transaction.</li>
<li>This IPO in particular was a difficult deal to value for IPO investors based upon being a "first mover" in the AI space.</li>
</ul>


CoreWeave priced a down-sized transaction of 37.5mm shares at $40.00 ($7 Below the Original $47-$55 range) and opened at $39.00 for a loss of 2.5% at first trade
According to our underwriter sources, the deal finished multiple-times oversubscribed with the top three accounts getting 50% of the deal and the top 15 accounts taking down 90% of the transaction.
This IPO in particular was a difficult deal to value for IPO investors based upon being a "first mover" in the AI space.


CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): IPO Opens Below Issue, Closes Flat in Debut Session

<ul>
<li>According to sources, the deal is being reworked with significant share size reduction and a downwardly-revised price.</li>
<li>Ultimately, a smaller size transaction with a more attractive valuation will make this IPO easier to digest. </li>
<li>We lack conviction in this IPO at this time and believe that investors looking to have a long-term position in the company may be better suited as an aftermarket participant. </li>
</ul>


According to sources, the deal is being reworked with significant share size reduction and a downwardly-revised price.
Ultimately, a smaller size transaction with a more attractive valuation will make this IPO easier to digest. 
We lack conviction in this IPO at this time and believe that investors looking to have a long-term position in the company may be better suited as an aftermarket participant. 


CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV): IPO Terms Being Reworked at Eleventh Hour; Caution Needed

United States

CoreWeave, Inc. is a specialized cloud infrastructure company that provides high-performance computing resources optimized for workloads such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, visual effects, and batch processing. The company's CoreWeave Cloud Platform consists of proprietary software and cloud services that deliver the automation and efficiency needed to manage complex AI infrastructure at scale. Its platform supports the development and use of ground-breaking models and the delivery of the next generation of AI applications. CoreWeave operates a GPU-first architecture, optimized for training and inference of generative AI models, and also targets scientific and financial computing, as well as real-time 3D rendering needs. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey.

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CoreWeave (CRWV US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Perplexity At $100M ARR

TL;DR: As LLM labs threaten Perplexity by bundling in search, Perplexity is counter-attacking by eating up consumer use cases like travel search...

Sacra

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

SmartStop's successful IPO reflects strong demand from long-only and REIT-dedicated investors for low-risk storage unit companies with monthly...

IPO Boutique

CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): IPO Opens Below Issue, Closes Flat in Debut Session

CoreWeave's IPO priced lower than expected, opening at a loss of 2.5% with top accounts dominating the transaction, reflecting challenges in...

IPO Boutique

CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV): IPO Terms Being Reworked at Eleventh Hour; Caution Needed

The IPO deal is being reworked with a smaller share size and lower price, in an attempt to. make it more attractive for investors.

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Perplexity At $100M ARR

TL;DR: As LLM labs threaten Perplexity by bundling in search, Perplexity is counter-attacking by eating up consumer use cases like travel search...

Sacra

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

​SmartStop's successful IPO reflects strong demand from long-only and REIT-dedicated investors for low-risk storage unit companies with monthly...

IPO Boutique

CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): IPO Opens Below Issue, Closes Flat in Debut Session

​CoreWeave's IPO priced lower than expected, opening at a loss of 2.5% with top accounts dominating the transaction, reflecting challenges in...

IPO Boutique

CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV): IPO Terms Being Reworked at Eleventh Hour; Caution Needed

​The IPO deal is being reworked with a smaller share size and lower price, in an attempt to. make it more attractive for investors.

IPO Boutique

SmartStop's successful IPO reflects strong demand from long-only and REIT-dedicated investors for low-risk storage unit companies with monthly...

CoreWeave's IPO priced lower than expected, opening at a loss of 2.5% with top accounts dominating the transaction, reflecting challenges in...

The IPO deal is being reworked with a smaller share size and lower price, in an attempt to. make it more attractive for investors.