Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. </li>
<li>Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. </li>
<li>Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.</li>
</ul>


Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. 
Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. 
Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.


Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

Pranay Yadav

<ul>
<li>Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. </li>
<li>Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.</li>
<li>Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. </li>
</ul>


Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 


Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

<ul>
<li>North Dakota accounts for 51% of total US spring wheat production. The region's projected 2024 crop yield 15% higher YoY at an average of 54.5 bushels per acre.</li>
<li>Large old-crop corn inventories record yield of 183-185 bpa collectively dragging corn prices down.</li>
<li>Wheat vols rebounded last week after falling the prior week. Prices face uncertainty as strong exports, lower production in EU &amp; China provides support against massive US harvest.</li>
</ul>


North Dakota accounts for 51% of total US spring wheat production. The region's projected 2024 crop yield 15% higher YoY at an average of 54.5 bushels per acre.
Large old-crop corn inventories record yield of 183-185 bpa collectively dragging corn prices down.
Wheat vols rebounded last week after falling the prior week. Prices face uncertainty as strong exports, lower production in EU &amp; China provides support against massive US harvest.


[CB 30/2024] Corn & Soy Tumble on Improving Weather; Chinese Demand Likely to Support Soy

<ul>
<li>Strong American harvest driving downward pressure on Wheat, likely to offset reductions in EU and Russia.</li>
<li>Corn saw modest recovery, driven by muted ending stocks, below trade estimate, but the harvest is going to be the third largest ever.</li>
<li>US soybean production remains muted, in line with the Acreage report, and led to moderate recovery in early trading on Friday, but bearish sentiment persists.</li>
</ul>


Strong American harvest driving downward pressure on Wheat, likely to offset reductions in EU and Russia.
Corn saw modest recovery, driven by muted ending stocks, below trade estimate, but the harvest is going to be the third largest ever.
US soybean production remains muted, in line with the Acreage report, and led to moderate recovery in early trading on Friday, but bearish sentiment persists.


Latest WASDE Paints Agri Bearishness; Wheat Harvest Dominates While Corn & Beans Find Thin Support

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.</li>
<li>Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.</li>
<li>Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.</li>
</ul>


Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.
Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.
Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.


Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

United States

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

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Corn Active Contract (C A COMDTY)

Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

Delayed La Niña threatens corn harvest. Harvest disruptions & rising hurricanes can sharply turn bearish corn sentiments into a rally. Neutral ENSO...

Mint Finance

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

Wheat, corn, and soy futures exhibit surprising strength despite broader market declines, driven by the weakening US dollar, although year-to-date...

Mint Finance

[CB 30/2024] Corn & Soy Tumble on Improving Weather; Chinese Demand Likely to Support Soy

82% of the US winter wheat harvested, 2% more than average. Wheat vols on the rise on conflicting fundamentals. Beans remains volatile amid Chinese...

Mint Finance

Latest WASDE Paints Agri Bearishness; Wheat Harvest Dominates While Corn & Beans Find Thin Support

Bumper US wheat harvest to offset challenges in the EU and Russia. Corn prices are weighed down by greater planted & harvested area leading to a...

Mint Finance

Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

Storm Beryl has flooded roads, closed ports, cancelled >1,300 flights, blacked out 2.7m homes, and killed >three people. It could spawn tornadoes...

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