Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Everyone is talking El Nino, but the textbook regional fingerprints in North and South America are nowhere to be found.</li><li>That is not the thesis breaking down - it is the calendar. The Indian monsoon shows why.</li><li>El Nino is everywhere in commodity conversation right now, and our own data points to this cycle running strong. </li></ul>

Everyone is talking El Nino, but the textbook regional fingerprints in North and South America are nowhere to be found.That is not the thesis breaking down - it is the calendar. The Indian monsoon shows why.El Nino is everywhere in commodity conversation right now, and our own data points to this cycle running strong. 

Where Are the Classic El Nino Signatures? Right on Schedule - Just Not Here Yet

<ul><li>Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska have spent much of this summer under real drought stress, and Corn and Soybean futures have moved with it.</li><li>The instinct is to buy the drought. The position that has actually made money in our research is the opposite one.</li><li>The trade that has actually made money in our research this cycle is not a long position betting the drought pushes prices higher.</li></ul>

Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska have spent much of this summer under real drought stress, and Corn and Soybean futures have moved with it.The instinct is to buy the drought. The position that has actually made money in our research is the opposite one.The trade that has actually made money in our research this cycle is not a long position betting the drought pushes prices higher.

Corn Belt Drought Is Back in the Headlines - the Trade We're Watching Is a Short, Not a Long

<ul><li>On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)</li><li>That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…</li><li>Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.</li></ul>

On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

<ul><li>Traders are hunting hard for short opportunities in commodities right now.</li><li>With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.</li><li>The grain market, though, could soon offer a cleaner setup – reason enough to take a dedicated look here.</li></ul>

Traders are hunting hard for short opportunities in commodities right now.With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.The grain market, though, could soon offer a cleaner setup – reason enough to take a dedicated look here.

Where the Short Sits in Grains – and Where It Doesn’t

<ul><li>Since mid-December liquidity has been quite low in the commodity futures markets.</li><li>This will change now again with traders coming back to their desks after holiday break.</li><li>Meanwhile, the government shutdown-induced delay in CoT reports is now fully resolved again - we’re back to normal data-wise as well!</li></ul>

Since mid-December liquidity has been quite low in the commodity futures markets.This will change now again with traders coming back to their desks after holiday break.Meanwhile, the government shutdown-induced delay in CoT reports is now fully resolved again - we’re back to normal data-wise as well!

United States

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

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Corn Active Contract (C A COMDTY)

Where Are the Classic El Nino Signatures? Right on Schedule - Just Not Here Yet

Everyone is talking El Nino, but the textbook regional fingerprints in North and South America are nowhere to be found. That is not the thesis...

The Commodity Report

Corn Belt Drought Is Back in the Headlines - the Trade We're Watching Is a Short, Not a Long

Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska have spent much of this summer under real drought stress, and Corn and Soybean futures have moved with it. The instinct...

The Commodity Report

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino...

The Commodity Report

Where the Short Sits in Grains – and Where It Doesn’t

With the momentum carrying so many markets, that’s a thankless job: selling into a live trend costs you nerves and usually money.

The Commodity Report

Back to Normal!

Since mid-December liquidity has been quite low in the commodity futures markets. This will change now again with traders coming back to their...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)