European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the June IBEX review, Naturgy’s free-float coefficient rises from 20% to 60%, potentially increasing its benchmark weight from roughly 0.6% to around 1.8%.</li>
<li>We estimate incremental IBEX-linked demand of €180–300m for Naturgy, versus €30–55m for Indra and €10–20m for Solaria, based on benchmark rebalancing requirements.</li>
<li>The IBEX 35 composition remains unchanged, but the coefficient revisions create a meaningful rebalance. For passive investors, the June review is primarily a Naturgy event.</li>
</ul>


Following the June IBEX review, Naturgy’s free-float coefficient rises from 20% to 60%, potentially increasing its benchmark weight from roughly 0.6% to around 1.8%.
We estimate incremental IBEX-linked demand of €180–300m for Naturgy, versus €30–55m for Indra and €10–20m for Solaria, based on benchmark rebalancing requirements.
The IBEX 35 composition remains unchanged, but the coefficient revisions create a meaningful rebalance. For passive investors, the June review is primarily a Naturgy event.


IBEX Review: Naturgy Emerges as the Main Beneficiary

<ul>
<li>Técnicas Reunidas appears the leading candidate to re-enter the IBEX 35 on 11 June, supported by 62.4% free float, stronger liquidity and superior computable capitalisation versus Acciona Energía.</li>
<li>Our reconstruction places TRE at 0.27–0.28% of adjusted IBEX capitalisation, marginally below the 0.30% inclusion threshold, making the CAT decision finely balanced but actionable.</li>
<li>A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling index-arbitrage setup.</li>
</ul>


Técnicas Reunidas appears the leading candidate to re-enter the IBEX 35 on 11 June, supported by 62.4% free float, stronger liquidity and superior computable capitalisation versus Acciona Energía.
Our reconstruction places TRE at 0.27–0.28% of adjusted IBEX capitalisation, marginally below the 0.30% inclusion threshold, making the CAT decision finely balanced but actionable.
A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling index-arbitrage setup.


Tecnicas Reunidas: IBEX 35 Re-Entry in Sight?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.</li>
<li>Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.</li>
</ul>


Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.


Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente / Event-Driven

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM)

<ul>
<li>Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.</li>
<li>After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.</li>
<li>A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.</li>
</ul>


Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.
After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.
A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.


Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Spain

Corporacion Acciona Energias Renovables SA, doing business as Acciona Energia, operates as a renewable energy utility. The Company owns and develops renewable energy technologies including onshore wind, solar PV, hydraulic, thermal, biomass, and storage assets. Acciona Energia is vertically integrated across the renewable energy value chain and serves customers worldwide.

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ACCIONA Energias Renovabl (ANE SM)

IBEX Review: Naturgy Emerges as the Main Beneficiary

No company entered or left the IBEX 35. Yet the June review may still trigger hundreds of millions of euros in benchmark-driven flows. .

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tecnicas Reunidas: IBEX 35 Re-Entry in Sight?

A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumours. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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