Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts diverged in 2025: Nordic holdcos re-rated to cycle-tight levels, while event-driven structures like Vivendi reset sharply, restoring asymmetric upside for patient investors.</li>
<li>Simplification mattered where credible: GBL’s asset sales and balance-sheet progress contrast with structurally static vehicles, highlighting that governance change—not asset quality—drives sustained discount compression.</li>
<li>Best opportunities remain selective: Structural discounts (Heineken, Investor, Industrivärden) persist, post-normalisation trades (Porsche SE) are largely done, and DLC spreads (Rio) stay catalyst-dependent rather than mean-reverting.</li>
</ul>


Discounts diverged in 2025: Nordic holdcos re-rated to cycle-tight levels, while event-driven structures like Vivendi reset sharply, restoring asymmetric upside for patient investors.
Simplification mattered where credible: GBL’s asset sales and balance-sheet progress contrast with structurally static vehicles, highlighting that governance change—not asset quality—drives sustained discount compression.
Best opportunities remain selective: Structural discounts (Heineken, Investor, Industrivärden) persist, post-normalisation trades (Porsche SE) are largely done, and DLC spreads (Rio) stay catalyst-dependent rather than mean-reverting.


2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);
Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>If you don't think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is cheap to its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.</li>
</ul>


If you don't think Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.

ENN Energy (2688 HK)'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

Spain

Corporacion Financiera Alba, S.A. (Alba) is a holding company.  The Company holds interests in companies in the retail, media and new technologies, fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet access, construction, and banking and financial services sectors in Spain.  The Company also owns and manages office and commercial space.

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Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

2025 showed holdco discounts are not one trade: Nordics priced to perfection, GBL simplifying but ignored, Vivendi reset by legal timing. Discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

2025 showed holdco discounts are not one trade: Nordics priced to perfection, GBL simplifying but ignored, Vivendi reset by legal timing. Discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

​March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...