Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>Inflows last month amounted to USD 5.7bn which marks sixth months of inflows. Top three stocks southbound investors bought were Meituan, CNOOC, and Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
Inflows last month amounted to USD 5.7bn which marks sixth months of inflows. Top three stocks southbound investors bought were Meituan, CNOOC, and Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (May): Meituan, CNOOC, Tencent

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> has rallied 55.7% over the last four months, and we believe it is now prudent to trim position.</li>
<li>P/B valuation is almost at 5-year high and over 2SD above historical average, but ROE for FY22F is still shy of the peak level achieved in such period. </li>
<li>There is downgrade risk for FY22F consensus profit of Rmb1.6bn given 1Q22 profit of just Rmb25m, and near-term retreat in spot rate does not bode well for CSET. </li>
</ul>


Share price of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) has rallied 55.7% over the last four months, and we believe it is now prudent to trim position.
P/B valuation is almost at 5-year high and over 2SD above historical average, but ROE for FY22F is still shy of the peak level achieved in such period. 
There is downgrade risk for FY22F consensus profit of Rmb1.6bn given 1Q22 profit of just Rmb25m, and near-term retreat in spot rate does not bode well for CSET. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Ahead of the Curve...but Too Much

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The trend of Rmb depreciation is generally negative to China companies, but we think the shipping companies present an interesting angle given their USD revenue stream and partial Rmb costs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK)</a> are some names that can realise benefits.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-capital-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10665:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a> is the most attractive one, given its USD revenue, partial Rmb cost base, reporting in Rmb, low net debt and potentially better volume. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-holdings-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27590:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
</ul>


The trend of Rmb depreciation is generally negative to China companies, but we think the shipping companies present an interesting angle given their USD revenue stream and partial Rmb costs.

COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK), SITC International (1308 HK) and Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) are some names that can realise benefits.

We think COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK) is the most attractive one, given its USD revenue, partial Rmb cost base, reporting in Rmb, low net debt and potentially better volume. 



Rmb Depreciation: An Angle for the Shipping Names?

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>A/H premium increase was led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight A/H premium at 52 week peak: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
A/H premium increase was led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors.
We highlight A/H premium at 52 week peak: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium. 


A/H Premium Weekly: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium

<ul>
<li>US crude export growth is the positive driver while China import contraction is the negative for tanker ton-mile demand in last year which contraction 5.3% YoY.  </li>
<li>Significant room exists for a rebound in US oil export as oil majors announced plans to increase output. China's import growth will recover in the next 12-18 months as well. </li>
<li>US oil export to China needs 2x more VLCC than from Arabian Gulf. This bodes well for tanker rate, benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a> in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


US crude export growth is the positive driver while China import contraction is the negative for tanker ton-mile demand in last year which contraction 5.3% YoY.  
Significant room exists for a rebound in US oil export as oil majors announced plans to increase output. China's import growth will recover in the next 12-18 months as well. 
US oil export to China needs 2x more VLCC than from Arabian Gulf. This bodes well for tanker rate, benefiting Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK) in the medium term.


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): US Crude Export and China Import the Wild Cards?

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (May): Meituan, CNOOC, Tencent

Inflows last month amounted to USD 5.7bn which marks sixth months of inflows. Top three stocks southbound investors bought were Meituan, CNOOC, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Ahead of the Curve...but Too Much

CSET's sharp rally has brought its P/B to 2SD above historical average and more than reflected its earnings recovery. Risk exists for profit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Rmb Depreciation: An Angle for the Shipping Names?

Shipping companies present an interesting angle to look at under the current trend of Rmb depreciation. USD revenue stream and partial Rmb costs...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Weekly: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium

We highlight A/H premium increase led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors, and stocks at 52 week high: BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): US Crude Export and China Import the Wild Cards?

CSET should benefit from ton-mile demand expansion driven by rise in US crude export and recovery in China import in the next 12-18 months. 1Q22...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)