HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>With spot VLCC rates at U$1.26m/day, the market has significantly underestimated the net profit for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-transportation-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> in 2H26. </li>
<li>The upcoming 3Q26 results announcement by end-Oct is likely to be a blowout, providing a positive surprise and leading to meaningful earnings upgrades. </li>
<li>At 24.5% FY26F ROE, its 12-month forward P/B of 1.64x is not stretched. Also, its decline in gearing from 77.4% in FY24 to 16% in FY27F justifies a higher P/B.   </li>
</ul>


With spot VLCC rates at U$1.26m/day, the market has significantly underestimated the net profit for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK) in 2H26. 
The upcoming 3Q26 results announcement by end-Oct is likely to be a blowout, providing a positive surprise and leading to meaningful earnings upgrades. 
At 24.5% FY26F ROE, its 12-month forward P/B of 1.64x is not stretched. Also, its decline in gearing from 77.4% in FY24 to 16% in FY27F justifies a higher P/B.   


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Skyrocketing

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 66% to 93%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.22, compared with a benchmark of 0.56 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare and energy sectors in August, while exposure to materials and communication services dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 66% to 93%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.22, compared with a benchmark of 0.56 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare and energy sectors in August, while exposure to materials and communication services dragged on performance.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

<ul>
<li>The market consensus is too conservative for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. (1138 HK)</a>. A better-than-expected 3Q25 result is likely to prompt an earnings upgrade.   </li>
<li>Spot VLCC rate is 32.7% higher than 1H25 so far for 2H25, and average bunker price has declined 6.2% in 3Q25, both implying improved earnings prospects.</li>
<li>With an average ROE for FY25-27 at over 12%, its 1.05x P/B is not stretched. During FY20-23, the average ROE of 1.6% has supported a P/B ratio of 0.56x. </li>
</ul>


The market consensus is too conservative for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. (1138 HK). A better-than-expected 3Q25 result is likely to prompt an earnings upgrade.   
Spot VLCC rate is 32.7% higher than 1H25 so far for 2H25, and average bunker price has declined 6.2% in 3Q25, both implying improved earnings prospects.
With an average ROE for FY25-27 at over 12%, its 1.05x P/B is not stretched. During FY20-23, the average ROE of 1.6% has supported a P/B ratio of 0.56x. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Preparing for Upside Surprise

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>There is a chance for a correction in the HK markets as latecomers to the party get nervous</li>
<li>All the signs are pointing to a continuation of this bull market as government support measures continue to roll out.</li>
<li>Don’t get bucked off that bull by a short-term correction!</li>
</ul>


There is a chance for a correction in the HK markets as latecomers to the party get nervous
All the signs are pointing to a continuation of this bull market as government support measures continue to roll out.
Don’t get bucked off that bull by a short-term correction!


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high</li>
<li>The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising</li>
<li>Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact</li>
</ul>


Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high
The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising
Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact


Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is a specialized company primarily engaged in the global shipment of energy, including crude oil, refined oil products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It also provides vessel chartering and shipping agency services. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was established in 2016.

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COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Skyrocketing

The market has significantly underestimated CSET's 2H26 earnings, as the VLCC spot rate has already reached US$1.26m/day. Given an ROE of 24.5% and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by...

David Mudd

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Preparing for Upside Surprise

CSET surged by 41.7% YTD, and is trading at 1.45x P/B. Although this is the highest level since 2021, its ROE will increase to 13.3% in FY26 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Don’t Let the Bull Throw You Off!

HK markets may see a correction due to nervous latecomers, but signs point to a continued bull market with government support measures in place...

Rikki Malik

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Skyrocketing

The market has significantly underestimated CSET's 2H26 earnings, as the VLCC spot rate has already reached US$1.26m/day. Given an ROE of 24.5% and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by...

David Mudd

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Preparing for Upside Surprise

CSET surged by 41.7% YTD, and is trading at 1.45x P/B. Although this is the highest level since 2021, its ROE will increase to 13.3% in FY26 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Don’t Let the Bull Throw You Off!

​HK markets may see a correction due to nervous latecomers, but signs point to a continued bull market with government support measures in place...

Rikki Malik

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. ​Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

HK markets may see a correction due to nervous latecomers, but signs point to a continued bull market with government support measures in place...

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...