Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>November supply rose month on month in every major market except the Middle East, where refinery-maintenance curtailed output.</li><li>Output posted the largest increase in the Americas, driven largely by the completion of plant-maintenance in the US.</li><li>Asia’s base oils output rose year on year for a fourth straight month, with gains extending into December.</li></ul>

November supply rose month on month in every major market except the Middle East, where refinery-maintenance curtailed output.Output posted the largest increase in the Americas, driven largely by the completion of plant-maintenance in the US.Asia’s base oils output rose year on year for a fourth straight month, with gains extending into December.

Global Base Oils Supply Rises in November Before Seasonal Slowdown

<ul><li>Asia demand rising: Philippines &amp; Vietnam imports rebounded in December, helping refiners clear surplus barrels</li><li>Indonesia Group III recovers: Exports rose as outage impacts faded; imports fell</li><li>Europe diverges: Group I supply rebounded in November, while Group II tightened on lower US and Saudi imports</li></ul>

Asia demand rising: Philippines &amp; Vietnam imports rebounded in December, helping refiners clear surplus barrelsIndonesia Group III recovers: Exports rose as outage impacts faded; imports fellEurope diverges: Group I supply rebounded in November, while Group II tightened on lower US and Saudi imports

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 06 Feb '26

<ul><li>Group II cargo-loadings from Taiwan pause in past week, after a surge in shipments in Dec 2025 and Jan 2026.</li><li>Several large cargoes loaded from Taiwan in H2 Jan 2026 before heading to India, with first shipment set to arrive in the coming days.</li><li>Singapore took delivery of another cargo from China in the past week, extending for a third straight week a wave of shipments from that market.</li></ul>

Group II cargo-loadings from Taiwan pause in past week, after a surge in shipments in Dec 2025 and Jan 2026.Several large cargoes loaded from Taiwan in H2 Jan 2026 before heading to India, with first shipment set to arrive in the coming days.Singapore took delivery of another cargo from China in the past week, extending for a third straight week a wave of shipments from that market.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 6 February

<ul><li>Several more large cargoes of Group II base oils load from Taiwan in late-Jan 2026, boosting, keeping total shipments unusually high for a second month.</li><li>Large cargo loaded last week from Taiwan bound for India, set to arrive in H2 Feb 2026.</li><li>Singapore takes delivery of unusually large cargo from Netherlands in past week, even with healthy regional availability of supply.</li></ul>

Several more large cargoes of Group II base oils load from Taiwan in late-Jan 2026, boosting, keeping total shipments unusually high for a second month.Large cargo loaded last week from Taiwan bound for India, set to arrive in H2 Feb 2026.Singapore takes delivery of unusually large cargo from Netherlands in past week, even with healthy regional availability of supply.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 30 January

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Global Base Oils Supply Rises in November Before Seasonal Slowdown

November supply rose month on month in every major market except the Middle East, where refinery-maintenance curtailed output. Output posted the...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 06 Feb '26

Asia demand rising: Philippines & Vietnam imports rebounded in December, helping refiners clear surplus barrels Indonesia Group III...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 6 February

Group II cargo-loadings from Taiwan pause in past week, after a surge in shipments in Dec 2025 and Jan 2026. Several large cargoes loaded from...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 30 January

Several more large cargoes of Group II base oils load from Taiwan in late-Jan 2026, boosting, keeping total shipments unusually high for a second...

Base Oil News

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