Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.</li>
<li>Cosmo wasn't going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. </li>
<li>A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwatani-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15459:1" rel="noopener">Iwatani Corp (8088 JP)</a> announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san's 20.01% holding.</li>
</ul>


The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
Cosmo wasn't going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. 
A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san's 20.01% holding.


Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

<ul>
<li>Japanese activist Murakami-san and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. </li>
<li>Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/content/dam/corp/jp/ja/news/2023/10/24-1/pdf/231024jp_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doc</a> (Japanese).</li>
<li>At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.</li>
</ul>


Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. 
Cosmo's efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san's efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.


Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> and noted Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and affiliates/companies have been duking it out for the better part of a year. </li>
<li>Now Cosmo is putting a Poison Pill to an AGM vote. And it has decided to not allow Murakami-san to vote his shares. Because he is an interested party.</li>
<li>INVESTORS NEED TO BE AWARE. This is the second time a company has sought to deny a shareholder its voting rights without legal basis. The last time the court agreed.</li>
</ul>



Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) and noted Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and affiliates/companies have been duking it out for the better part of a year. 
Now Cosmo is putting a Poison Pill to an AGM vote. And it has decided to not allow Murakami-san to vote his shares. Because he is an interested party.
INVESTORS NEED TO BE AWARE. This is the second time a company has sought to deny a shareholder its voting rights without legal basis. The last time the court agreed.


Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

<ul>
<li>In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.</li>
<li>When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11021:1" rel="noopener">Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP)</a>, 6.58% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12970:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP)</a>. In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.</li>
<li>That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.</li>
</ul>


In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.
When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP), 6.58% of Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP). In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.
That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.


Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

Murakami-san is OUT of Cosmo Energy. Petro/Industrial Gases co Iwatani Corp has bought a 19.9% stake. This may be without warning to Cosmo. It's...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

Cosmo Energy Management has a plan. Murakami proposes a different one. So now management wants to hold a vote with a plan to stifle Murakami-san in...

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Idemitsu has bought two corporate stakes in Fuji Oil to go from 6+% to nearly 22%. This is not a big surprise. There's history. Medium-long-term, a...

Travis Lundy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San's Cosmo Energy Stake

Murakami-san is OUT of Cosmo Energy. Petro/Industrial Gases co Iwatani Corp has bought a 19.9% stake. This may be without warning to Cosmo. It's...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) - Headed to an EGM Showdown for the Poison Pill

​Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) In a Display of Stunningly Bad Governance; If You Disagree, You Can't Vote

Cosmo Energy Management has a plan. Murakami proposes a different one. So now management wants to hold a vote with a plan to stifle Murakami-san in...

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Idemitsu has bought two corporate stakes in Fuji Oil to go from 6+% to nearly 22%. This is not a big surprise. There's history. Medium-long-term, a...

Travis Lundy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Japanese activist Murakami-san owns 20% of Cosmo Energy. The Board thinks he is bad, so wants to trigger the poison pill warrants. It won't do...