Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.
You can now join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Interest rate / Cover Story: Where best to invest in China’s low-interest-rate era</li><li>Citadel /: Citadel files application for foreign-owned China brokerage after short delay</li><li>Telecom scams: More than 60 university students in Hong Kong, mostly first-year Chinese mainland newcomers, have fallen victim to telecom scams in recent months, losing HK$60 million ($7.7 million) between them</li></ul>

Interest rate / Cover Story: Where best to invest in China’s low-interest-rate eraCitadel /: Citadel files application for foreign-owned China brokerage after short delayTelecom scams: More than 60 university students in Hong Kong, mostly first-year Chinese mainland newcomers, have fallen victim to telecom scams in recent months, losing HK$60 million ($7.7 million) between them

CX Daily: Where Best to Invest in China’s Low-Interest-Rate Era 

<ul>
<li>The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend</li>
<li>What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices</li>
<li>In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday</li>
</ul>


The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday


China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

China

Country Garden Holdings is a major real estate development company primarily engaged in property development, construction, property investment, property management, and hotel operations. The company offers a diverse portfolio including residential projects, commercial properties, and integrated urban developments. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Foshan, China.

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Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK)

China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

We review the 2024 'Draw The Line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened and put it in the context of the past forecasts....

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 17-23, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: Where Best to Invest in China’s Low-Interest-Rate Era

Interest rate / Cover Story: Where best to invest in China’s low-interest-rate era When Li Zhen went to renew the 50,000 yuan ($6,824) she had...

Caixin Global

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)