Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Somehow the current leg of decline in China's Real estate stocks and bonds has not gotten the attention of investors and money managers.</li><li>Perhaps because the first calls of China's Lehman moment showed it was an exaggerated extrapolation.</li><li>The first decline phase was limited to corporates with highly leveraged real estate balance sheets.</li></ul>

Somehow the current leg of decline in China's Real estate stocks and bonds has not gotten the attention of investors and money managers.Perhaps because the first calls of China's Lehman moment showed it was an exaggerated extrapolation.The first decline phase was limited to corporates with highly leveraged real estate balance sheets.

Hang Seng Index Constituents 14 July 2022

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Country Garden should not be a surprise. The bond price at 5 cents is based on much uncertainty.</li>
<li>We list a few caveats why the bonds at 5 cents are not investible.</li>
<li>The potential wind-up order by the Hong Kong court will be a big test of the rule of law in China.</li>
</ul>


Country Garden should not be a surprise. The bond price at 5 cents is based on much uncertainty.
We list a few caveats why the bonds at 5 cents are not investible.
The potential wind-up order by the Hong Kong court will be a big test of the rule of law in China.


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5225'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Country Garden Holdings Co

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-35'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5225'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Jinmao HoldingsCountry Garden Holdings Co

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Hang Seng Index Constituents 14 July 2022

Somehow the current leg of decline in China's Real estate stocks and bonds has not gotten the attention of investors and money managers. Perhaps...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Country Garden : Not a Nickel Play

Country Garden defaulted on its USD bonds on 18-October. Its COGARD complex was offered c.5 cents on the dollar but we cannot recommend buying...

Bondcritic

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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