IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

JINGDONG Industrials / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-industrials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (2231713D CH)</a>/JDI, a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China, has filed for a US$1bn IPO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> owns a 77.95% stake.</li>
<li>JDI is the largest industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV, customer coverage and SKU offerings in 2022, according to CIC.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust product revenue growth underpinned by key accounts, improving underlying margin and strong cash generation.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrials (2231713D CH)/JDI, a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China, has filed for a US$1bn IPO. JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) owns a 77.95% stake.
JDI is the largest industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV, customer coverage and SKU offerings in 2022, according to CIC.
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust product revenue growth underpinned by key accounts, improving underlying margin and strong cash generation.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zkh-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36818:1" rel="noopener">ZKH Group (ZKH US)</a>, a leading MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) procurement service platform in China, is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise US$200-300 million.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zkh-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97653" rel="noopener">ZKH Group IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on market share losses, slowing top-line growth, declining take rates and persistent cash burn.</li>
</ul>



ZKH Group (ZKH US), a leading MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) procurement service platform in China, is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise US$200-300 million.
In ZKH Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on market share losses, slowing top-line growth, declining take rates and persistent cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zkh-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36818:1" rel="noopener">ZKH Group (ZKH US)</a>, a leading MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) procurement service platform in China, is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise US$200-300 million.</li>
<li>The ZKH platform is for enterprise customers and the GBB platform is for micro businesses. Key backers include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and Tiger Global.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, solid customer loyalty, improving gross margin, lower operating losses and a strong balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



ZKH Group (ZKH US), a leading MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) procurement service platform in China, is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise US$200-300 million.
The ZKH platform is for enterprise customers and the GBB platform is for micro businesses. Key backers include Tencent (700 HK) and Tiger Global.
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, solid customer loyalty, improving gross margin, lower operating losses and a strong balance sheet.


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AvidXchange is one of the leading providers of AP automation software and payment solutions for mid-market businesses and their suppliers. The company was founded in 2000 in the United States. </li>
<li>With a large $20B+ TAM and valuation at ~5x FY23 revenue estimate of $392M – significantly below the average for software and payment peers – we believe shares are undervalued. </li>
<li>Management raised the FY22 revenue outlook and expected a strong FY23. AvidXchange is two years from GAAP profitability, likely making the stock volatile in the coming years.  </li>
</ul>


AvidXchange is one of the leading providers of AP automation software and payment solutions for mid-market businesses and their suppliers. The company was founded in 2000 in the United States. 
With a large $20B+ TAM and valuation at ~5x FY23 revenue estimate of $392M – significantly below the average for software and payment peers – we believe shares are undervalued. 
Management raised the FY22 revenue outlook and expected a strong FY23. AvidXchange is two years from GAAP profitability, likely making the stock volatile in the coming years.  


AvidXchange: How Mid-Market Can Save Money. Attractive Valuation and Low-Risk Entry Point

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Forensic Accounting

Fox Factory Holding / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon Roofing

United States

Coupa Software Incorporated designs and develops software solutions. The Company offers procurement and expense management software to engineering, government, education, health care, retail, and staffing industries. Coupa Software serves customers around the world.

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Coupa Software (COUP US)

JD Industrials IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large TAMs, market share gains, robust product revenue growth underpinned by key accounts, improving...

Arun George

ZKH Group IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on market share losses, slowing top-line growth, declining take rates and persistent cash burn.

Arun George

ZKH Group IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, solid customer loyalty, improving gross margin, lower operating losses and a...

Arun George

AvidXchange: How Mid-Market Can Save Money. Attractive Valuation and Low-Risk Entry Point

AvidXchange’s EV/Revenue multiple is near a trough for a company in our SaaS universe, and we have a favorable view of the company’s business

Andrei Zakharov

Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon Roofing

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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