China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect CPNG to report C1Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 2.0% and 4.8% vs. consensus, respectively. </li>
<li>AliExpress became S. Korea’s most downloaded app after increasing spending, but product overlap with Coupang is limited, while other S. Korean competitors recorded declining MAU, in our understanding.</li>
<li>South Korean economic indicators, including CPI and retail data, point towards a recovery. We maintain our BUY rating and US$19 TP.</li>
</ul>


We expect CPNG to report C1Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 2.0% and 4.8% vs. consensus, respectively. 
AliExpress became S. Korea’s most downloaded app after increasing spending, but product overlap with Coupang is limited, while other S. Korean competitors recorded declining MAU, in our understanding.
South Korean economic indicators, including CPI and retail data, point towards a recovery. We maintain our BUY rating and US$19 TP.


[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Preview]: Market Share Solid Given Limited Competitive Threat

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carsales-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:701:1" rel="noopener">Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU)</a> aims to raise around US$330m (A$501m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. The deal is relatively large to digest at 28.2 days of three month ADV. </li>
<li>The use of proceeds will be to acquire 40% of Webmotors SA and strengthen its balance sheet. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU) aims to raise around US$330m (A$501m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. The deal is relatively large to digest at 28.2 days of three month ADV. 
The use of proceeds will be to acquire 40% of Webmotors SA and strengthen its balance sheet. 
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Carsales Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Following up on a Decade-Old Acquisition

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.</li>
<li>If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.</li>
</ul>


South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, Coupang (CPNG US) sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.
Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.
If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.


Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

<ul>
<li>Coupang reported C4Q22 total revenue missed our est. and cons. by (5%) and (2%). Net income missed our est. by (9%) and beat cons. by 18%. </li>
<li>We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics.</li>
<li>We trimmed our 2023 total revenue growth est. by (4%) and raise net income est. by 9% for operating efficiency improvement. Maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Coupang reported C4Q22 total revenue missed our est. and cons. by (5%) and (2%). Net income missed our est. by (9%) and beat cons. by 18%. 
We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics.
We trimmed our 2023 total revenue growth est. by (4%) and raise net income est. by 9% for operating efficiency improvement. Maintain BUY.


[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Coupang (CPNG US)

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Carsales Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Following up on a Decade-Old Acquisition

Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU) aims to raise around US$330m (A$501m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. The deal is relatively large to digest at...

Ethan Aw

Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

Being one of the very first e-commerce companies in the region to cut costs to ensure long-term survival, Coupang has managed to break even in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics. Maintain BUY and TP of US$19,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Preview]: Market Share Solid Given Limited Competitive Threat

AliExpress became S. Korea’s most downloaded app after increasing spending, but product overlap with Coupang is limited, while other S. Korean...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Carsales Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Following up on a Decade-Old Acquisition

Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU) aims to raise around US$330m (A$501m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. The deal is relatively large to digest at...

Ethan Aw

Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

Being one of the very first e-commerce companies in the region to cut costs to ensure long-term survival, Coupang has managed to break even in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics. Maintain BUY and TP of US$19,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute