Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other income, while the GPM remained healthy.</li><li>The valuation metrics continue to support a positive view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 36% upside.</li><li>The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), and the long-term growth outlook has been revised to strong (previously neutral), supported by a projected 14% CAGR for earnings growth over the next two years.</li></ul>

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other income, while the GPM remained healthy.The valuation metrics continue to support a positive view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 36% upside.The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), and the long-term growth outlook has been revised to strong (previously neutral), supported by a projected 14% CAGR for earnings growth over the next two years.

CP All - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings; 2Y Growth Projected at a 14% CAGR

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745954" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the MBO is stalling due to disagreements within the consortium over who will control <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> after it is privatised.</li>
<li>The Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> was set to withdraw from the MBO consortium. Along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a>’s <a href="https://www.cpall.co.th/en/news-en/coporate-news/reaffirmation-of-the-companys-non-participation-in-the-lnvestment-in-a-japanese-retail-company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-participation</a>, the MBO’s financing is in trouble. </li>
<li>An <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a> bid remains in play but has issues. While progressing, the Board’s restructuring plan fails to prove a credible alternative. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the MBO is stalling due to disagreements within the consortium over who will control Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) after it is privatised.
The Nikkei reported that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) was set to withdraw from the MBO consortium. Along with CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)’s non-participation, the MBO’s financing is in trouble. 
An Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid remains in play but has issues. While progressing, the Board’s restructuring plan fails to prove a credible alternative. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): A Potential Derailing of the MBO

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In the past month we have seen <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.</li>
<li>We've also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.</li>
<li>York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided "in spring" with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.</li>
</ul>


In the past month we have seen Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
We've also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided "in spring" with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.


7&I (3382) - In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.</li>
</ul>



CP ALL (CPALL TB) has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in Seven &amp; I Holdings.
Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.


CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT / Equity Bottom-Up

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT TB)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,250/1,235 points and resistance at 1,270/1,275 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend under a rounding top pattern, with a range of 1,200-1,506 points.</li><li>Investment strategy: Wait for a technical reversal signal before trading buy.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,250/1,235 points and resistance at 1,270/1,275 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend under a rounding top pattern, with a range of 1,200-1,506 points.Investment strategy: Wait for a technical reversal signal before trading buy.

US Employment May Be Weaker Than Expected

Thailand

CP ALL Public Company Limited operates 7-Eleven convenience stores as the sole licensee in Thailand, offering a wide range of food and non-food products. The company also engages in wholesale and retail businesses, including Makro, and provides related services such as bill payments, food production, and retail equipment. CP ALL was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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CP ALL (CPALL-R TB)

CP All - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings; 2Y Growth Projected at a 14% CAGR

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other...

Krungthai XSpring

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): A Potential Derailing of the MBO

Itochu’s potential withdrawal and CP All’s non-participation could be the event that derails the MBO. An Couche-Tard bid remains in play but has...

Arun George

7&I (3382) - In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

7&i is seeing the MBO consortium and its financing possibilities take shape, but the real question is about how the split and sub-financing goes....

Travis Lundy

CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have...

Angus Mackintosh

US Employment May Be Weaker Than Expected

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,250/1,235 points and resistance at 1,270/1,275 points. In the medium term,...

Krungthai XSpring

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