Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s extreme bifurcation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, widens even more. The holding in Oriental Land is now worth 275% of Keisei's market cap. </li>
<li>The fact that we don't KNOW what Murakami-san did and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> shares fell in large volume Friday AND pro-ration was 100% will lead to higher-than-expectd volatility.</li>
<li>The placement, the pledge, the connected party transaction, and a large parcel of shares moving into CCASS (ostensibly the founder/chairman's), suggest all is not well with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property (813 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s extreme bifurcation with Oriental Land (4661 JP), widens even more. The holding in Oriental Land is now worth 275% of Keisei's market cap. 
The fact that we don't KNOW what Murakami-san did and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) shares fell in large volume Friday AND pro-ration was 100% will lead to higher-than-expectd volatility.
The placement, the pledge, the connected party transaction, and a large parcel of shares moving into CCASS (ostensibly the founder/chairman's), suggest all is not well with Shimao Property (813 HK). 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, Shinsei Bank, Shimao, Sawada, Virtus, Senex Energy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Idico Corp, Itaco, Vinh Hoan Corp, Khang Dien House Trading And Investment Jsc and Van Phu will be added to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close on 17 December.</li>
<li>The inclusions have run up a lot over the last few months and the passive buying impact will vary between 0.24-1.76 days of ADV. That's not a lot.</li>
<li>There are a few current constituents where the drop in index weight will mean selling from the ETF. These stocks could be more interesting from a trading perspective.</li>
</ul>


Idico Corp, Itaco, Vinh Hoan Corp, Khang Dien House Trading And Investment Jsc and Van Phu will be added to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close on 17 December.
The inclusions have run up a lot over the last few months and the passive buying impact will vary between 0.24-1.76 days of ADV. That's not a lot.
There are a few current constituents where the drop in index weight will mean selling from the ETF. These stocks could be more interesting from a trading perspective.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Inclusions Gone Parabolic

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Document for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> (CPP) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 15 December. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> with 49.74% and 25% of shares out respectively are offering HK$1.15/share for CPP, a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. </li>
<li>The Independent Financial Adviser (Ballas Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is the 25 January, on or before.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Document for Cp Pokphand (43 HK) (CPP) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 15 December. 

CP FOODS (CPF TB) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) with 49.74% and 25% of shares out respectively are offering HK$1.15/share for CPP, a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. 
The Independent Financial Adviser (Ballas Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is the 25 January, on or before.


C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 15 December

<div>
After being <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0927/2021092700107.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> on the 27 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> ("CPP"), a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP Foods (CPF TB)</a>.
The consideration is $1.15/share, a 19.79% premium to last close. The Offer price will NOT be increased.
CPF holds 49.74% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> 25%. Itochu has entered into a rollover agreement with CPF such that upon successful completion of the Scheme, CPF will hold 75% and Itochu 25%. 
The Offer premium is a trifle light to that consistently seen in Hong Kong M&amp;A deals in recent years. Nevertheless, this all looks stitched up and should trade tight when shares resume trading on Monday.
More below the fold. 
</div>
<div>

</div>


After being suspended on the 27 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, Cp Pokphand (43 HK) ("CPP"), a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from CP Foods (CPF TB).
The consideration is $1.15/share, a 19.79% premium to last close. The Offer price will NOT be increased.
CPF holds 49.74% and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) 25%. Itochu has entered into a rollover agreement with CPF such that upon successful completion of the Scheme, CPF will hold 75% and Itochu 25%. 
The Offer premium is a trifle light to that consistently seen in Hong Kong M&amp;A deals in recent years. Nevertheless, this all looks stitched up and should trade tight when shares resume trading on Monday.
More below the fold. 





C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Privatisation Offer From CP Foods

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> (CPP) is a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. After market close on Thursday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a>, the largest shareholder (49.74% of the outstanding shares). The offeror will offer HK$1.15 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 19.79% over the closing price of HK$0.96 per share on the last trading date (24 September prior to the trading halt). For good measure, CPP also released a statement outlining a profit warning. CPP noted that the net profit would decline -75% YoY in 8M21, which marks a deterioration to the net profit decline of -50% YoY in 1H21. The profit warning was attributed mainly to a poor performance in China caused by lower poultry and swine prices. CPP notes that poultry and swine prices in China and swine prices in Vietnam will have fallen further in September. <div class="content-highlight">The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 5,958.8 million shares or 24.75% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 595.9 million shares or 2.48% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the privatisation bid will be successful. </div>

Cp Pokphand (43 HK) (CPP) is a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. After market close on Thursday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from CP FOODS (CPF TB), the largest shareholder (49.74% of the outstanding shares). The offeror will offer HK$1.15 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 19.79% over the closing price of HK$0.96 per share on the last trading date (24 September prior to the trading halt). For good measure, CPP also released a statement outlining a profit warning. CPP noted that the net profit would decline -75% YoY in 8M21, which marks a deterioration to the net profit decline of -50% YoY in 1H21. The profit warning was attributed mainly to a poor performance in China caused by lower poultry and swine prices. CPP notes that poultry and swine prices in China and swine prices in Vietnam will have fallen further in September. The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 5,958.8 million shares or 24.75% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 595.9 million shares or 2.48% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the privatisation bid will be successful. 

C.P. Pokphand’s Privatisation Bid from CPF

Hong Kong

CP Pokphand is an investment holding company and a leading agri-food conglomerate operating in China and Vietnam. It specializes in the manufacture and sale of animal feed products, the breeding, farming, and sale of livestock and aquatic animals, and the production and sale of value-added processed food products. The company is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong, and was founded in 1979.

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CP Pokphand (CPKPF US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, Shinsei Bank, Shimao, Sawada, Virtus, Senex Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Inclusions Gone Parabolic

There are 5 inclusions to the MVIS Vietnam Index that will be implemented at the close on 17 December. The adds have all rallied a lot in the last...

Brian Freitas

C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 15 December

This still looks a pretty clean deal. I'd be paying up to and around $1.12/share which is ~3.6%/15% gross/annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Privatisation Offer From CP Foods

This looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-Feb completion, I'd be paying up to and around $1.11/share which is ~5.8%/16.5 gross/annualised spread, when...

David Blennerhassett

C.P. Pokphand’s Privatisation Bid from CPF

CPP announced a privatisation offer from CPF at HK$1.15 cash for each scheme share. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the...

Arun George

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