Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.</p>

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

<p>Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.</p>

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While Rubrik reported all key operating metrics and cash flow above expectations for 2Q’FY26, shares sold off over 10% on heavy volume.</li>
<li>+35% y/y 3Q’FY26/+25% y/y 4Q’FY26 revenue growth guide raises questions about next FY27, in my view. Rubrik stock continues to trade at a premium valuation.  </li>
<li>Given the trends in the quarter and guidance, I believe the cybersecurity company can achieve and sustain 25%+ y/y revenue growth in FY26, FY27 and FY28.</li>
</ul>


While Rubrik reported all key operating metrics and cash flow above expectations for 2Q’FY26, shares sold off over 10% on heavy volume.
+35% y/y 3Q’FY26/+25% y/y 4Q’FY26 revenue growth guide raises questions about next FY27, in my view. Rubrik stock continues to trade at a premium valuation.  
Given the trends in the quarter and guidance, I believe the cybersecurity company can achieve and sustain 25%+ y/y revenue growth in FY26, FY27 and FY28.


Rubrik 2Q’FY26 Wrap: Subscription NRR, Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Growth Is Slowing Into FY27

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. presented its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, highlighting several positive outcomes and some challenges.</li><li>Key highlights included a robust quarter marked by record Q2 net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $221 million, ending ARR of $4.66 billion, and record operating income of $255 million.</li><li>The company's total revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, reaching $1.17 billion, exceeding expectations.</li></ul>

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. presented its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, highlighting several positive outcomes and some challenges.Key highlights included a robust quarter marked by record Q2 net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $221 million, ending ARR of $4.66 billion, and record operating income of $255 million.The company's total revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, reaching $1.17 billion, exceeding expectations.

CrowdStrike: Expansion in Identity Protection Market

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Palantir ownership among global funds hit a record 11.3% in July 2025, nearly doubling in six months, led by growth strategies.</li>
<li>Despite a 500% rally and rising index weights, most fund positions remain modest; only three exceed 2%.</li>
<li>Now the fourth most held AI/software peer, Palantir risks becoming a Tesla-style underweight challenge for active managers.</li>
</ul>


Palantir ownership among global funds hit a record 11.3% in July 2025, nearly doubling in six months, led by growth strategies.
Despite a 500% rally and rising index weights, most fund positions remain modest; only three exceed 2%.
Now the fourth most held AI/software peer, Palantir risks becoming a Tesla-style underweight challenge for active managers.


Palantir Technologies Inc:  Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

United States

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity products and services to stop breaches. The Company offers cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, and leading threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. CrowdStrike serves customers worldwide.

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Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Rubrik 2Q’FY26 Wrap: Subscription NRR, Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Growth Is Slowing Into FY27

Rubrik, a high-growth data security company, reported solid 2Q'FY26 financial results. In my insight, I update valuation model and set a new TP...

Andrei Zakharov

CrowdStrike: Expansion in Identity Protection Market

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. presented its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, highlighting several positive outcomes and some challenges. Key...

Baptista Research

Palantir Technologies Inc: Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

Palantir has surged into global fund portfolios, doubling ownership to record highs. Growth-led buying and a 500% rally push it toward Tesla-like...

Steven Holden

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U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Rubrik 2Q’FY26 Wrap: Subscription NRR, Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Growth Is Slowing Into FY27

​Rubrik, a high-growth data security company, reported solid 2Q'FY26 financial results. In my insight, I update valuation model and set a new TP...

Andrei Zakharov

CrowdStrike: Expansion in Identity Protection Market

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. presented its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, highlighting several positive outcomes and some challenges. Key...

Baptista Research

Palantir Technologies Inc: Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

Palantir has surged into global fund portfolios, doubling ownership to record highs. Growth-led buying and a 500% rally push it toward Tesla-like...

Steven Holden

Rubrik, a high-growth data security company, reported solid 2Q'FY26 financial results. In my insight, I update valuation model and set a new TP...