Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s implied stub has overshot the mark</li>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in Prosus (PRX NA)'s implied stub has overshot the mark
The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

<ul>
<li>There are currently 43 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-eastone-telecomm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19488:1" rel="noopener">Far Eastone Telecomm (4904 TT)</a> merging with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-pacific-telecom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19657:1" rel="noopener">Asia Pacific Telecom (3682 TT)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> merging with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


There are currently 43 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals this week: Far Eastone Telecomm (4904 TT) merging with Asia Pacific Telecom (3682 TT); Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) merging with Sezzle Inc (SZL AU).
Key updates took place for: Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Crown Resorts (CWN AU), Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp (TRUE TB) 



Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Asia Pacific Telecom, Sezzle, Singapore Press, DTAC/True

<ul>
<li>AUSTRAC has commenced civil penalty proceedings against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> for alleged serious and systemic non-compliance with Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws.</li>
<li>The statement of claim does not include any quantification of the penalty sought. For Blackstone to walk away from the Crown deal, the fine needs to be at least $750mn.</li>
<li>A prescribed occurrence appears to have been triggered. But technically, that is not accurate.</li>
</ul>


AUSTRAC has commenced civil penalty proceedings against Crown Resorts (CWN AU) for alleged serious and systemic non-compliance with Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws.
The statement of claim does not include any quantification of the penalty sought. For Blackstone to walk away from the Crown deal, the fine needs to be at least $750mn.
A prescribed occurrence appears to have been triggered. But technically, that is not accurate.


Crown Resorts: AUSTRAC And Prescribed Occurrences

<ul>
<li>For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>There are currently 42 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hochtief-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21652:1" rel="noopener">Hochtief AG (HOT GR)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-manage-cl-a-0483cfb5-71a5-4931-af80-901e5f30aace" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer (1337 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-tourism-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24305:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Tourism (ATL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus (AVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9838:1" rel="noopener">Z Energy (ZEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g-j-steel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14759:1" rel="noopener">G J Steel (GJS TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 42 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals this week: Hochtief AG (HOT GR) for CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU); Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US) for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU).
Key updates took place for: Razer (1337 HK), Apollo Tourism (ATL AU), Aventus (AVN AU), Z Energy (ZEL NZ), G J Steel (GJS TB), and Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: CIMIC, AGL, Razer, Z Energy, G J Steel, Mapletree North Asia

Australia

Crown Resorts Ltd. operates and manages gaming and entertainment facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas and retail outlets. The Company also develops hotels and conference centre facilities.

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Crown Resorts (CWN AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

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Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Asia Pacific Telecom, Sezzle, Singapore Press, DTAC/True

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

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Crown Resorts: AUSTRAC And Prescribed Occurrences

The fact Crown shares inched higher on the Austrac civil proceedings is illustrative. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.5%/20.4%, assuming...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: February 2022 Roundup

For the month of February, 12 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: CIMIC, AGL, Razer, Z Energy, G J Steel, Mapletree North Asia

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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