Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>In the market battle between geopolitical risk and fundamentals, thus far geopolitical risk is obviously winning, with the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract trading well above $100 per barrel.                </li>
<li>However, given the latest weekly EIA data, we must now monitor underlying fundamentals more closely than ever for signs that fundamentals may begin to overtake supply risk.                                  </li>
<li>At the same time, we keep a close eye on the Houthi-Saudi conflict, since any major strike on Saudi energy assets will elicit a response from Pakistan and Turkey.        </li>
</ul>


In the market battle between geopolitical risk and fundamentals, thus far geopolitical risk is obviously winning, with the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract trading well above $100 per barrel.                
However, given the latest weekly EIA data, we must now monitor underlying fundamentals more closely than ever for signs that fundamentals may begin to overtake supply risk.                                  
At the same time, we keep a close eye on the Houthi-Saudi conflict, since any major strike on Saudi energy assets will elicit a response from Pakistan and Turkey.        


Morning Market Notes: Military Strikes Rule for Now, But Waning Demand To Rule Down the Road

<ul>
<li>With the “naval war” now in full swing, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract managed to settle yesterday at the highest level since May.                  </li>
<li>In tandem with the naval war, we now have intensified military activity between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia, compounding oil price strength and risk.                                   </li>
<li>We have been premature in suggesting that crude oil prices may be peaking, but we would not chase the market since we believe ultra-high ULSD will take its economic toll.           </li>
</ul>


With the “naval war” now in full swing, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract managed to settle yesterday at the highest level since May.                  
In tandem with the naval war, we now have intensified military activity between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia, compounding oil price strength and risk.                                   
We have been premature in suggesting that crude oil prices may be peaking, but we would not chase the market since we believe ultra-high ULSD will take its economic toll.           


Morning Market Notes: Contrary to President Trump's Beliefs, War Likely to Extend Past the Midterms

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.</li>
<li>Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.</li>
<li>Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.</li>
</ul>


WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.
Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.
Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.


Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds

<ul>
<li>Given the latest round of “naval warfare” between the U.S. and Iran, we were somewhat surprised that the market response has not yet been more “robust.”                </li>
<li>With Iran’s apparent willingness to be the aggressor in response to Operation Economic Outcast, however, it is extremely difficult to trust this market.                                 </li>
<li>Nonetheless, despite our belief that the conflict will continue through year end, at the risk of famous last words, we believe that the upside to oil prices will be limited.         </li>
</ul>


Given the latest round of “naval warfare” between the U.S. and Iran, we were somewhat surprised that the market response has not yet been more “robust.”                
With Iran’s apparent willingness to be the aggressor in response to Operation Economic Outcast, however, it is extremely difficult to trust this market.                                 
Nonetheless, despite our belief that the conflict will continue through year end, at the risk of famous last words, we believe that the upside to oil prices will be limited.         


Morning Market Notes: A New Phase of Naval Conflict?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The sector recorded 1 gas discovery during the month — Dolphin X-1 (operated by PPL).</li><li>During the month, the sector has not reported any dry well.</li><li>Oil and gas production rose 20% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, owing to the disruption of RLNG supply.</li></ul>

The sector recorded 1 gas discovery during the month — Dolphin X-1 (operated by PPL).During the month, the sector has not reported any dry well.Oil and gas production rose 20% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, owing to the disruption of RLNG supply.

Oil & Gas Exploration: Takeaways from Monthly Activity Report - Aug 2026

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Morning Market Notes: Military Strikes Rule for Now, But Waning Demand To Rule Down the Road

Geopolitics rules for now in determining crude oil prices but weakening fundamentals will rule down the road. Commodities take the stairs up but...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Contrary to President Trump's Beliefs, War Likely to Extend Past the Midterms

Despite President Trump's claim that the war will end immediately after the midterms, we still envision at least degree of conflict at least...

William H Brown III

Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds

WTI’s Hormuz driven rally strengthened bullish positioning, while Cheniere continues to expand contracted LNG capacity ahead of a potentially...

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: A New Phase of Naval Conflict?

A phase of "naval warfare" has begun between the U.S. and Iran. Despite our belief that the conflict will extend through at least year end, we...

William H Brown III

Oil & Gas Exploration: Takeaways from Monthly Activity Report - Aug 2026

The sector recorded 1 gas discovery during the month — Dolphin X-1 (operated by PPL). During the month, the sector has not reported any dry...

Topline Securities

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