Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

Commodities

<ul><li>Crude futures were sharply lower on Monday after the US paused its bombing campaign against Iran over the weekend, potentially giving diplomatic efforts a chance.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were down 9.4% at $87.66/b (2118 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $81.84/b , 8.5% lower versus Friday's settle.</li><li>Iranian officials also said on Sunday its forces had halted retaliatory attacks against Gulf countries hosting US bases, after Washington paused nearly two weeks of nightly bombings across Iran.</li></ul>

Crude futures were sharply lower on Monday after the US paused its bombing campaign against Iran over the weekend, potentially giving diplomatic efforts a chance.Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were down 9.4% at $87.66/b (2118 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $81.84/b , 8.5% lower versus Friday's settle.Iranian officials also said on Sunday its forces had halted retaliatory attacks against Gulf countries hosting US bases, after Washington paused nearly two weeks of nightly bombings across Iran.

Oil futures: Crude rows back sharply as US pauses Iran bombing

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

<ul>
<li>While the oil market is subject to “profit taking” in response to “negotiations,” there is no sign that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb is increasing.       </li>
<li>In this regard, there is also absolutely no sign that Tehran will compromise on “managing” the Strait of Hormuz, either alone or with Muscat.              </li>
<li>There therefore still remains the possibility of renewed conflict on a larger scale, as President Trump has threatened, irrespective of the U.S. weapons inventory.         </li>
</ul>


While the oil market is subject to “profit taking” in response to “negotiations,” there is no sign that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb is increasing.       
In this regard, there is also absolutely no sign that Tehran will compromise on “managing” the Strait of Hormuz, either alone or with Muscat.              
There therefore still remains the possibility of renewed conflict on a larger scale, as President Trump has threatened, irrespective of the U.S. weapons inventory.         


Morning Market Notes: U.S.-Iran Peace "At Hand"? We Will Believe It When We See It

<ul>
<li>It appears that, for the time being at least, the exchange of military strikes between the U.S. and Iran will pause, although we will see how long this one lasts.       </li>
<li>President Trump is suggesting that he wishes to give the negotiating process another chance, but weighing heavily is the continued depletion of the U.S. weapons inventory, particularly defensive assets.</li>
<li>If further depleted, it would reduce the “neutral” Gulf countries' ability to defend themselves and therefore subject critical oil and gas assets to substantial damage.         </li>
</ul>


It appears that, for the time being at least, the exchange of military strikes between the U.S. and Iran will pause, although we will see how long this one lasts.       
President Trump is suggesting that he wishes to give the negotiating process another chance, but weighing heavily is the continued depletion of the U.S. weapons inventory, particularly defensive assets.
If further depleted, it would reduce the “neutral” Gulf countries' ability to defend themselves and therefore subject critical oil and gas assets to substantial damage.         


Monday Macro Update: A Military Hiatus: A Pause to Refresh or A Pause to Rearm?

<ul><li>Crude futures rowed back from recent two-month highs on Friday, although were holding on to most of the steep weekly gains as oil markets face the worst crisis since the start of the current Middle East conflict.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent futures were down 3% at $97.68/b (2115 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $90.08/b , down 2.3% versus Thursday's settle, with the conflict avoiding further escalation in the last 24 hours.</li><li>Benchmarks had gained around a third over the last two weeks with Brent hitting $102/b on Thursday after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz again, while its Houthi allies in Yemen targeted Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.</li></ul>

Crude futures rowed back from recent two-month highs on Friday, although were holding on to most of the steep weekly gains as oil markets face the worst crisis since the start of the current Middle East conflict.Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent futures were down 3% at $97.68/b (2115 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $90.08/b , down 2.3% versus Thursday's settle, with the conflict avoiding further escalation in the last 24 hours.Benchmarks had gained around a third over the last two weeks with Brent hitting $102/b on Thursday after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz again, while its Houthi allies in Yemen targeted Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.

Oil futures: Crude off highs as US-Iran tensions simmer

<ul>
<li>Based on the steep “slope” of the conflict escalation, we would not be surprised to see $100.00 per barrel, basis prompt NYMEX, approached in the not-too-distant future.      </li>
<li>We have pulled our recommendation to short the Sept NYMEX CL RBOB crack since, as anticipated, the jump in crude oil squeezed the cracks toward fair value given current circumstances.</li>
<li>Our latest outlook for the U.S. commercial crude oil balance suggests an even “tighter” peak through the end of August, with “less robust” easing thereafter.        </li>
</ul>


Based on the steep “slope” of the conflict escalation, we would not be surprised to see $100.00 per barrel, basis prompt NYMEX, approached in the not-too-distant future.      
We have pulled our recommendation to short the Sept NYMEX CL RBOB crack since, as anticipated, the jump in crude oil squeezed the cracks toward fair value given current circumstances.
Our latest outlook for the U.S. commercial crude oil balance suggests an even “tighter” peak through the end of August, with “less robust” easing thereafter.        


Morning Market Notes: A Test of $100.00 Per Barrel, Basis Prompt NYMEX, Anytime Soon?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Oil futures: Crude rows back sharply as US pauses Iran bombing

Crude futures were sharply lower on Monday after the US paused its bombing campaign of Iran over the weekend............

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: U.S.-Iran Peace "At Hand"? We Will Believe It When We See It

Oil market remains volatile due to questions over negotiations, no increase in traffic through key straits, Tehran shows no signs of compromise,...

William H Brown III

Monday Macro Update: A Military Hiatus: A Pause to Refresh or A Pause to Rearm?

US-Iran military strikes on pause for now, Trump considers negotiations but concerns over depleting defensive assets remain, risking Gulf...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude off highs as US-Iran tensions simmer

Crude futures rowed back from recent two-month highs on Friday, although were holding on to most of the steep weekly gains...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: A Test of $100.00 Per Barrel, Basis Prompt NYMEX, Anytime Soon?

Expect prompt NYMEX crude oil to try and approach $100 per barrel, with a tight market balance through August. Trading recommendation adjusted...

William H Brown III

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Oil futures: Crude rows back sharply as US pauses Iran bombing

Crude futures were sharply lower on Monday after the US paused its bombing campaign of Iran over the weekend............

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: U.S.-Iran Peace "At Hand"? We Will Believe It When We See It

​Oil market remains volatile due to questions over negotiations, no increase in traffic through key straits, Tehran shows no signs of compromise,...

William H Brown III

Monday Macro Update: A Military Hiatus: A Pause to Refresh or A Pause to Rearm?

​US-Iran military strikes on pause for now, Trump considers negotiations but concerns over depleting defensive assets remain, risking Gulf...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude off highs as US-Iran tensions simmer

Crude futures rowed back from recent two-month highs on Friday, although were holding on to most of the steep weekly gains...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: A Test of $100.00 Per Barrel, Basis Prompt NYMEX, Anytime Soon?

​Expect prompt NYMEX crude oil to try and approach $100 per barrel, with a tight market balance through August. Trading recommendation adjusted...

William H Brown III

Oil market remains volatile due to questions over negotiations, no increase in traffic through key straits, Tehran shows no signs of compromise,...

US-Iran military strikes on pause for now, Trump considers negotiations but concerns over depleting defensive assets remain, risking Gulf...

Expect prompt NYMEX crude oil to try and approach $100 per barrel, with a tight market balance through August. Trading recommendation adjusted...