Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>If in fact the Houthi-Saudi issues cannot be resolved, there is a risk of even higher oil prices as another combative front opens up.</li>
<li>Under an absolute worst-case scenario, to which we would assign low odds at this point, would be if there is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical facilities at Abqaiq.           </li>
<li>In the interim, there is no indication that the conflict on the “primary front,” i.e., the U.S. versus Iran, shows any sign of abating.       </li>
</ul>


If in fact the Houthi-Saudi issues cannot be resolved, there is a risk of even higher oil prices as another combative front opens up.
Under an absolute worst-case scenario, to which we would assign low odds at this point, would be if there is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical facilities at Abqaiq.           
In the interim, there is no indication that the conflict on the “primary front,” i.e., the U.S. versus Iran, shows any sign of abating.       


Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 2.2% at $91.22/b (2015 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $84.50/b , up 2.5% versus Monday's settle.</li><li>Oil prices had initially rowed back as investors assessed reports of mediation efforts between Iran and the US for a new truce as kinetic activity continued between the two sides, while Yemen's Houthis have threatened a naval blockade on Saudi vessels.</li></ul>

Crude futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 2.2% at $91.22/b (2015 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $84.50/b , up 2.5% versus Monday's settle.Oil prices had initially rowed back as investors assessed reports of mediation efforts between Iran and the US for a new truce as kinetic activity continued between the two sides, while Yemen's Houthis have threatened a naval blockade on Saudi vessels.

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

<ul>
<li>Thus far, at least, our revised “near-all-out-war” peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact.   </li>
<li>Further gains yesterday were inhibited by word that negotiations are still possible, no matter how implausible they may appear at the present time.          </li>
<li>The IRGC continues to emphasize they will never relinquish “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, our most important assumption since Day 1 of the war.</li>
</ul>


Thus far, at least, our revised “near-all-out-war” peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact.   
Further gains yesterday were inhibited by word that negotiations are still possible, no matter how implausible they may appear at the present time.          
The IRGC continues to emphasize they will never relinquish “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, our most important assumption since Day 1 of the war.


Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

<ul><li>Crude futures opened the week higher as the US extended its renewed bombing campaign to a ninth night while Iran continued to hit back against neighbours, although markets rowed back from early highs.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 1.4% at $89.31/b (2033 BST) having earlier peaked at $91.42/b , while Aug26 NYMEX  WTI was at $82.72/b , up 1.2% versus Friday's settle.</li><li>Brent initially topped $90/b for the first time since the June MoU as fears of a major escalation in the conflict heightened concerns for energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but retreated from highs after Iranian officials said mediators had submitted new peace proposals.</li></ul>

Crude futures opened the week higher as the US extended its renewed bombing campaign to a ninth night while Iran continued to hit back against neighbours, although markets rowed back from early highs.Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 1.4% at $89.31/b (2033 BST) having earlier peaked at $91.42/b , while Aug26 NYMEX  WTI was at $82.72/b , up 1.2% versus Friday's settle.Brent initially topped $90/b for the first time since the June MoU as fears of a major escalation in the conflict heightened concerns for energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but retreated from highs after Iranian officials said mediators had submitted new peace proposals.

Oil Futures: Brent tops $90/b before easing after new truce flagged

<ul>
<li>For all intents and purposes, the U.S. and Iran have returned to an “all-out” war, given U.S. infrastructure strikes and Iran’s retaliation against Gulf country desalination plants and other assets.      </li>
<li>As such, as previously discussed, such a scenario has led to a breach of $80.00+ per barrel, basis the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.       </li>
<li>While a diplomatic solution now appears all but implausible, at this juncture we are still not anticipating the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract returning to $100.00 per barrel.       </li>
</ul>


For all intents and purposes, the U.S. and Iran have returned to an “all-out” war, given U.S. infrastructure strikes and Iran’s retaliation against Gulf country desalination plants and other assets.      
As such, as previously discussed, such a scenario has led to a breach of $80.00+ per barrel, basis the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.       
While a diplomatic solution now appears all but implausible, at this juncture we are still not anticipating the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract returning to $100.00 per barrel.       


Monday Macro Update: Effectively, All-Out War Once Again

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

Crude futures were climbing higher as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...

William H Brown III

Oil Futures: Brent tops $90/b before easing after new truce flagged

Crude futures opened the week higher as the US extended its renewed bombing campaign to a ninth night, while Iran continued to hit back...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Monday Macro Update: Effectively, All-Out War Once Again

US and Iran engaged in "all-out" war, with infrastructure strikes and retaliation, breaching $80/barrel, but $100/barrel not expected.

William H Brown III

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Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

​Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

Crude futures were climbing higher as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

​Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...

William H Brown III

Oil Futures: Brent tops $90/b before easing after new truce flagged

Crude futures opened the week higher as the US extended its renewed bombing campaign to a ninth night, while Iran continued to hit back...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Monday Macro Update: Effectively, All-Out War Once Again

​US and Iran engaged in "all-out" war, with infrastructure strikes and retaliation, breaching $80/barrel, but $100/barrel not expected.

William H Brown III

Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...

US and Iran engaged in "all-out" war, with infrastructure strikes and retaliation, breaching $80/barrel, but $100/barrel not expected.