Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

Commodities

<ul><li>Oil futures were trading largely flat Wednesday at around one-month highs as the market continued to reprice risk around a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.</li><li>At 2136 London time,  Brent Sep26 futures were trading up 1.28% on the day at  $85.81/b , while Sep26 WTI was up slightly less than Brent at  $80.31/b .</li><li>The latest leg of the rally came after the June truce between the US and Iran continued to unravel, with Washington reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launching fresh strikes on targets it said were linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.</li></ul>

Oil futures were trading largely flat Wednesday at around one-month highs as the market continued to reprice risk around a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.At 2136 London time,  Brent Sep26 futures were trading up 1.28% on the day at  $85.81/b , while Sep26 WTI was up slightly less than Brent at  $80.31/b .The latest leg of the rally came after the June truce between the US and Iran continued to unravel, with Washington reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launching fresh strikes on targets it said were linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

<ul>
<li>In terms of the “temperature,” if the previous “quid pro quo” was 99 degrees and “all-out war” is “110 in the shade,” we guess we are at 102 degrees. </li>
<li>The higher "temperature" has pulled the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract only modestly above our estimated $80.00 per barrel peak, which was consistent with the 99 degree “quid pro quo.”      </li>
<li>While obviously the conflict could intensify further, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel, and even $90.00 may be difficult to achieve, short of all-out war, as previously defined.     </li>
</ul>


In terms of the “temperature,” if the previous “quid pro quo” was 99 degrees and “all-out war” is “110 in the shade,” we guess we are at 102 degrees. 
The higher "temperature" has pulled the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract only modestly above our estimated $80.00 per barrel peak, which was consistent with the 99 degree “quid pro quo.”      
While obviously the conflict could intensify further, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel, and even $90.00 may be difficult to achieve, short of all-out war, as previously defined.     


Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

<ul>
<li>The U.S.-Iran conflict’s “temperature” has now risen above the level we had assumed for our estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.</li>
<li>Still short of how we defined an “all-out war,” it nonetheless raises the risk that our $80.00 per barrel trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX contract may be “violated.”     </li>
<li>In any event, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.    </li>
</ul>


The U.S.-Iran conflict’s “temperature” has now risen above the level we had assumed for our estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.
Still short of how we defined an “all-out war,” it nonetheless raises the risk that our $80.00 per barrel trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX contract may be “violated.”     
In any event, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.    


Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. </li>
<li>US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). </li>
<li>After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  </li>
</ul>


Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. 
US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). 
After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  


Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

<ul>
<li>As we previously suggested, the current “lower level” of U.S.-Iran military activity shows absolutely no sign of ending.      </li>
<li>As we also have anticipated since Day 1, the Strait of Hormuz remains the “front burner” issue, not Iran’s nuclear program.    </li>
<li>As previously discussed, we believe the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a trading range between an “upper 6 handle” and an “upper 7 handle.”       </li>
</ul>


As we previously suggested, the current “lower level” of U.S.-Iran military activity shows absolutely no sign of ending.      
As we also have anticipated since Day 1, the Strait of Hormuz remains the “front burner” issue, not Iran’s nuclear program.    
As previously discussed, we believe the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a trading range between an “upper 6 handle” and an “upper 7 handle.”       


Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

Oil futures were pushing higher for a third consecutive session at a one-month as the market continued to reprice risk...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.

William H Brown III

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...

William H Brown III

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

Oil futures were pushing higher for a third consecutive session at a one-month as the market continued to reprice risk...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

​Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

​Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.

William H Brown III

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

​Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

​US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...

William H Brown III

Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...