Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Strong gains in oil prices attributed to tightening sanctions against Russia and Iran by outgoing Biden administration</li><li>Market anticipating decline in Russian and Iranian oil exports, with potential disruptions and price increases</li><li>Russian oil exports showing resilience despite sanctions, with logistics and companies excluded from restrictions providing room for maneuvering</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Strong gains in oil prices attributed to tightening sanctions against Russia and Iran by outgoing Biden administrationMarket anticipating decline in Russian and Iranian oil exports, with potential disruptions and price increasesRussian oil exports showing resilience despite sanctions, with logistics and companies excluded from restrictions providing room for maneuveringThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.</li><li>While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.</li><li>Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.</li></ul>

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose 1.7% for the week ending 17/Jan, driven by healthy U.S. economic data, falling crude inventories, and supply concerns.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio surged to 1.28 from 0.83 (10/Jan) last week, as call volume fell by 70.7% WoW while put volume decreased by 54.7%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR rose to 1.00 from 0.94 last week. Call OI fell by 11.7% WoW, while put OI declined by 6.4%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose 1.7% for the week ending 17/Jan, driven by healthy U.S. economic data, falling crude inventories, and supply concerns.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio surged to 1.28 from 0.83 (10/Jan) last week, as call volume fell by 70.7% WoW while put volume decreased by 54.7%.  
WTI OI PCR rose to 1.00 from 0.94 last week. Call OI fell by 11.7% WoW, while put OI declined by 6.4%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/03] WTI Gained for the Fourth Straight Week on Supply Concerns

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.
For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.


U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.


[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk

Summary: Oil prices have surged as a result of tightening sanctions against Russia and Iran, leading to shifts in price ranges, increased volumes,...

At Any Rate

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/03] WTI Gained for the Fourth Straight Week on Supply Concerns

WTI futures close the week ending 17/Jan, 1.7% higher on strong U.S. economic data, falling inventories, and supply disruption concerns. Put/Call...

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk

Summary: Oil prices have surged as a result of tightening sanctions against Russia and Iran, leading to shifts in price ranges, increased volumes,...

At Any Rate

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/03] WTI Gained for the Fourth Straight Week on Supply Concerns

​WTI futures close the week ending 17/Jan, 1.7% higher on strong U.S. economic data, falling inventories, and supply disruption concerns. Put/Call...

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

​US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

WTI futures close the week ending 17/Jan, 1.7% higher on strong U.S. economic data, falling inventories, and supply disruption concerns. Put/Call...

US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...