Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>It would appear that there is absolutely no indication of what the renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes will lead to or for how long. This level of conflict could continue indefinitely.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we see no reason to amend our estimated peak range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract of $75.00-$80.00 per barrel.    </li>
<li>Our updated U.S. crude oil balance through end-2026 took into account lower-than-anticipated gross exports, which were effectively essentially offset by higher forecast refinery runs.    </li>
</ul>


It would appear that there is absolutely no indication of what the renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes will lead to or for how long. This level of conflict could continue indefinitely.
Nonetheless, we see no reason to amend our estimated peak range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract of $75.00-$80.00 per barrel.    
Our updated U.S. crude oil balance through end-2026 took into account lower-than-anticipated gross exports, which were effectively essentially offset by higher forecast refinery runs.    


Morning Market Notes: A Possibly Indefinite Conflict, But No $100.00 Crude Oil Either

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract / Commodities

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract (KOA COMDTY)

<ul><li>Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.</li><li>This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.</li><li>According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.</li></ul>

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.</li>
<li>Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.</li>
<li>Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.
Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.
Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.


Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.</li>
<li>We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.</li>
<li>This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities</li>
</ul>


Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.
We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.
This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities


<ul>
<li>Despite President Trump’s threatening social media statements, the U.S.-Iran conflict will be limited to what we might term a “modestly expanded quid pro quo” as negotiations attempt to “reboot.”</li>
<li>We would therefore assign low odds to an escalation that would imply major U.S. strikes on Tehran and inland infrastructure.    </li>
<li>If we are correct, we would limit the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract’s upside to roughly $75.00-$80.00 per barrel.    </li>
</ul>


Despite President Trump’s threatening social media statements, the U.S.-Iran conflict will be limited to what we might term a “modestly expanded quid pro quo” as negotiations attempt to “reboot.”
We would therefore assign low odds to an escalation that would imply major U.S. strikes on Tehran and inland infrastructure.    
If we are correct, we would limit the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract’s upside to roughly $75.00-$80.00 per barrel.    


Morning Market Notes: Despite Military Strikes, We Limit Prompt NYMEX CL Upside to $75.00-$80.00

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Morning Market Notes: A Possibly Indefinite Conflict, But No $100.00 Crude Oil Either

Renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes may lead to indefinite conflict, but estimated peak range for NYMEX crude oil contract remains unchanged at...

William H Brown III

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the...

The Commodity Report

Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date. Robust demand...

Criat

EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?

Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from...

Steno Research

Morning Market Notes: Despite Military Strikes, We Limit Prompt NYMEX CL Upside to $75.00-$80.00

US-Iran conflict likely to remain limited to modestly expanded strikes, reduced odds of major escalation, limiting prompt NYMEX crude oil price...

William H Brown III

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Morning Market Notes: A Possibly Indefinite Conflict, But No $100.00 Crude Oil Either

​Renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes may lead to indefinite conflict, but estimated peak range for NYMEX crude oil contract remains unchanged at...

William H Brown III

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the...

The Commodity Report

Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date. Robust demand...

Criat

EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?

Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from...

Steno Research

Morning Market Notes: Despite Military Strikes, We Limit Prompt NYMEX CL Upside to $75.00-$80.00

​US-Iran conflict likely to remain limited to modestly expanded strikes, reduced odds of major escalation, limiting prompt NYMEX crude oil price...

William H Brown III

Renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes may lead to indefinite conflict, but estimated peak range for NYMEX crude oil contract remains unchanged at...

US-Iran conflict likely to remain limited to modestly expanded strikes, reduced odds of major escalation, limiting prompt NYMEX crude oil price...