Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."</li>
<li>The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.</li>
<li>As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.</li>
</ul>


The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."
The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.


Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose by 9.1% for the week ending 04/Oct, its strongest weekly gain since October 2022. The surge was led by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.64 (04/Oct) from 0.76 (27/Sep) as call volume jumped by 120% WoW while put volume grew by 86.6%.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR fell to 0.76 for the week ending 04/Oct from 0.77 last week. Call OI rose by 11.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 10.4%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose by 9.1% for the week ending 04/Oct, its strongest weekly gain since October 2022. The surge was led by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.64 (04/Oct) from 0.76 (27/Sep) as call volume jumped by 120% WoW while put volume grew by 86.6%.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.76 for the week ending 04/Oct from 0.77 last week. Call OI rose by 11.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 10.4%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/40] WTI Surged Amid Fears of Israeli Retaliation Against Iran

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.</li><li>The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.</li><li>EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.</li></ul>

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count declined by two to 585 for the week ending 04/Oct, marking the seventh drop in eight weeks.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count fell by five to 479, its lowest since 19/Jul. Gas rigs rose by three to 102, marking its third straight weekly gain.</li>
<li>For the week ending 04/Oct, US energy producers added two rigs in Texas but cut three in New Mexico and one each in Louisiana and Oklahoma.  </li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count declined by two to 585 for the week ending 04/Oct, marking the seventh drop in eight weeks.
The US oil rig count fell by five to 479, its lowest since 19/Jul. Gas rigs rose by three to 102, marking its third straight weekly gain.
For the week ending 04/Oct, US energy producers added two rigs in Texas but cut three in New Mexico and one each in Louisiana and Oklahoma.  


US Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Brent oil futures trading in line with fair value, with bullish bias in options, as volume of bullish calls hit record high</li><li>Ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran raising concerns about further escalation, with recent attacks and strikes indicating potential for heightened tensions</li><li>Global oil inventories are significantly lower than in previous years, potentially impacting market dynamics and prices as demand and inventory levels play a key role</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Brent oil futures trading in line with fair value, with bullish bias in options, as volume of bullish calls hit record highOngoing conflict between Israel and Iran raising concerns about further escalation, with recent attacks and strikes indicating potential for heightened tensionsGlobal oil inventories are significantly lower than in previous years, potentially impacting market dynamics and prices as demand and inventory levels play a key roleThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: This time, it feels different

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Only Confirmed on a Break Below SPX 5670; Treasury Yields, bond volatility (MOVE index), and DXY Climbing, all risk-off...

Vermilion Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/40] WTI Surged Amid Fears of Israeli Retaliation Against Iran

WTI prices surged amid concerns over a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, the put-call volume ratio fell as the call...

Mint Finance

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.

The Commodity Report

US Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

For the week ending 04/Oct, the US rig count fell by 2 to 585. Oil rigs dropped by 5, while gas rigs rose by 3 again.US oil and gas producers added...

Mint Finance

Global Commodities: This time, it feels different

Overall, the oil market is currently stable but facing potential risks from geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with options trading showing...

At Any Rate

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