Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.</li>
<li>Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. </li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. </li>
<li>Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. 
Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.
This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>After the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels, non-SOE <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> is down 16%.</li>
<li>Port entrance fees include up to US$1mn/vessel owned by Chinese transport operators; and non-Chinese transport operators operating Chinese-built vessels would pay up to US$1.5mn per port entry</li>
<li>Fees are currently preliminary, and may, as witnessed in recent Trump policies, be a bargaining chip rather than firm action. If enacted, these measures would curtail a promising Chinese export.</li>
</ul>


After the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels, non-SOE Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is down 16%.
Port entrance fees include up to US$1mn/vessel owned by Chinese transport operators; and non-Chinese transport operators operating Chinese-built vessels would pay up to US$1.5mn per port entry
Fees are currently preliminary, and may, as witnessed in recent Trump policies, be a bargaining chip rather than firm action. If enacted, these measures would curtail a promising Chinese export.


Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) Rolls Over As The US Seeks To Curb China's Shipping Dominance

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  </li>
<li>Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16221:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank (6818 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank H (998 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Infrastructure construction companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-construction-corp-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:263:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group H (390 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Comm Cons (1800 HK)</a> are also well-positioned to gain.</li>
</ul>


CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  
Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. China Everbright Bank (6818 HK), China Citic Bank H (998 HK), and ICBC (H) (1398 HK) are the prime beneficiaries.
Infrastructure construction companies China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK), China Railway Group H (390 HK), and China Comm Cons (1800 HK) are also well-positioned to gain.


China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

Cssc Offshore & Marine Engg Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped sharply but net buying continued strongly.</li>
<li>Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%).</li>
<li>Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped sharply but net buying continued strongly.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%).
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

China

CSSC Offshore and Marine Engineering Group Company Limited manufactures and markets ships, containers, large steel structures, fiberglass boats, high-speed ships, and land use machines. The Company also offers ship polishing, repair and rental services.

CSSC Offshore and Marine Engin (600685 CH)

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CSSC Offshore and Marine Engin (600685 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia are down. AH Premia down low enough it seems further moves on narrow premia blue chips may need a policy move so playing curve torsion or...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

AH Premia are again at a 5yr low. Liquid Hs outperform illiquids with wider spreads. Trades are getting crowded. Biggest slew of recommendations in...

Travis Lundy

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) Rolls Over As The US Seeks To Curb China's Shipping Dominance

USTR fees are currently preliminary, and may, as witnessed in recent Trump policies, be a bargaining chip rather than firm action. If enacted,...

David Blennerhassett

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

AH premia fell on the week after a HUGE jump the previous week. Wide H discounts narrowed more than small H discounts. A "normal" week for beta vs...

Travis Lundy

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