Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2026 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP for 1Q beat consensus estimate by a huge margin.</li>
<li>The gaming business which previously was struggling to release new hit titles, has continued to report another set of strong results driven by newly released titles and global expansion.</li>
<li>CA’s share price went up by about 9% today, however, shares are still trading at a discount to historical trading multiples suggesting there is strong upside.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2026 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP for 1Q beat consensus estimate by a huge margin.
The gaming business which previously was struggling to release new hit titles, has continued to report another set of strong results driven by newly released titles and global expansion.
CA’s share price went up by about 9% today, however, shares are still trading at a discount to historical trading multiples suggesting there is strong upside.


CyberAgent 1Q: Gaming Recovery Continues While AbemaTV Turns Profitable for the First Time

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 4QFY09/2025 results last week. Full-year and 4QFY09/2025 revenue and OP beat consensus as well as guidance by a huge margin.</li>
<li>Despite reporting a set of strong results, CA’s share price has been down 15% which we think was driven by the company’s cautious guidance for FY09/2026.</li>
<li>With a strong pipeline of gaming titles coupled with global expansion of English versions of newly released titles, we think CA’s FY09/2026 guidance is overly conservative.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 4QFY09/2025 results last week. Full-year and 4QFY09/2025 revenue and OP beat consensus as well as guidance by a huge margin.
Despite reporting a set of strong results, CA’s share price has been down 15% which we think was driven by the company’s cautious guidance for FY09/2026.
With a strong pipeline of gaming titles coupled with global expansion of English versions of newly released titles, we think CA’s FY09/2026 guidance is overly conservative.


CyberAgent: Overblown Market Response to Overly Conservative Guidance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish SPX and ACWI since 4/22/25, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We discussed in our July 31, 2025 Int'l Compass how $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 were short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US, and ACWI-US found support at $128 the next day.</li>
<li>Europe (EURO STOXX 50) is the last of the major countries (from a global market cap perspective) to break out; we expect it to be next</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish SPX and ACWI since 4/22/25, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We discussed in our July 31, 2025 Int'l Compass how $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 were short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US, and ACWI-US found support at $128 the next day.
Europe (EURO STOXX 50) is the last of the major countries (from a global market cap perspective) to break out; we expect it to be next


Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CyberAgent 1Q: Gaming Recovery Continues While AbemaTV Turns Profitable for the First Time

CyberAgent's 1Q results beat estimates driven by strong recovery in gaming business. AbemaTV turned profitable for the first time and there is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CyberAgent: Overblown Market Response to Overly Conservative Guidance

Despite reporting a strong set of results that beat consensus and guidance, CyberAgent's share price is down 15% as market reacted to its...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

Europe Next to Break Out?; China and Japan Remain Attractive and a big focus since our July 3rd report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out;"...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CyberAgent 1Q: Gaming Recovery Continues While AbemaTV Turns Profitable for the First Time

​CyberAgent's 1Q results beat estimates driven by strong recovery in gaming business. AbemaTV turned profitable for the first time and there is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CyberAgent: Overblown Market Response to Overly Conservative Guidance

Despite reporting a strong set of results that beat consensus and guidance, CyberAgent's share price is down 15% as market reacted to its...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

Europe Next to Break Out?; China and Japan Remain Attractive and a big focus since our July 3rd report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out;"...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

CyberAgent's 1Q results beat estimates driven by strong recovery in gaming business. AbemaTV turned profitable for the first time and there is...