Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmic-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15558:1" rel="noopener">CMIC Holdings (2309 JP)</a> decided to "change its business model" this past spring, transferring control of a consolidated JV and other subs to DNP. </li>
<li>The result changed the accounting, and the business model, capitalising future cashflow and net income in a "hidden" asset which may or may not be in the Financial Advisor's valuation.</li>
<li>My read is this is being done too cheaply, and the price should be 30-60% higher. But, it would be tough to block this.</li>
</ul>



CMIC Holdings (2309 JP) decided to "change its business model" this past spring, transferring control of a consolidated JV and other subs to DNP. 
The result changed the accounting, and the business model, capitalising future cashflow and net income in a "hidden" asset which may or may not be in the Financial Advisor's valuation.
My read is this is being done too cheaply, and the price should be 30-60% higher. But, it would be tough to block this.


CMIC (2309 JP) - Huge Business Model Plan Appears to Hide Assets, Then an MBO. Ugh...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/mitsubishi-corp-considering-bid-fujitsus-chip-unit-shinko-electric-sources-2023-10-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> is considering a joint bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a>’s 50% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Fujitsu first flagged a potential stake sale in its 1HFY22 results last October. Previously rumoured suitors include Apollo Global Management, Bain Capital, Dai Nippon Printing, JIC and KKR.</li>
<li>Shinko’s shares are up 73% YTD, which is not excessive compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> (up 63.2% YTD). The valuation is undemanding, which facilitates a potential offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is considering a joint bid for Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)’s 50% stake in Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). 
Fujitsu first flagged a potential stake sale in its 1HFY22 results last October. Previously rumoured suitors include Apollo Global Management, Bain Capital, Dai Nippon Printing, JIC and KKR.
Shinko’s shares are up 73% YTD, which is not excessive compared to Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (up 63.2% YTD). The valuation is undemanding, which facilitates a potential offer.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Bidders Circle for Fujitsu’s Stake

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.</li>
<li>JSR's release (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/tdnet/2302693/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/ir_material4/209830/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.</li>
<li>Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with JSR Corp (4185 JP) to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.
JSR's release (Japanese/English) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.
Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.


JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Despite the strong performance from Dai Nippon Printing following the announcement of Elliott’s stake we feel upside remains. </li>
<li>Operating results should benefit from normalisation of the economy and light restructuring potential. </li>
<li>In addition, we do not see much evidence to suggest that valuations are particularly stretched.</li>
</ul>


Despite the strong performance from Dai Nippon Printing following the announcement of Elliott’s stake we feel upside remains. 
Operating results should benefit from normalisation of the economy and light restructuring potential. 
In addition, we do not see much evidence to suggest that valuations are particularly stretched.


Dai Nippon Printing – Gauging The Upside

Japan

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

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Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

CMIC (2309 JP) - Huge Business Model Plan Appears to Hide Assets, Then an MBO. Ugh...

CMIC had under-earning corporate entities. It sold control (keeping 49% to DNP) de-consolidating the sales and earnings. That lowers revenues +...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Bidders Circle for Fujitsu’s Stake

Mitsubishi Corp is the latest rumoured suitor. Shinko’s shares are up 73% YTD, which is not excessive compared to Ibiden (63.2% YTD). The valuation...

Arun George

JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

News Saturday says govt-affiliated JIC will buy JSR (4185) for ¥1trln (EV or market cap?, either 50% or 35% premium). This may not be great for...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Dai Nippon Printing – Gauging The Upside

Despite the rapid surge in the share price we remain rather bullish on Dai Nippon Printing as we consider valuations to still be reasonable when...

Mio Kato

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