Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Leading Japanese specialty steelmaker with core exposure to auto, stainless/alloys, magnets, and industrial components.</li>
<li>Mid-Term strategy centers on higher-margin growth products (SPE stainless, magnets, aerospace forgings) supported by new VAR and forging capacity.</li>
<li>Valuations &amp; Risks: Trades at a forward P/E compressing to ~5× by FY28E, but cyclical demand swings and raw material volatility remain key risks.</li>
</ul>


Leading Japanese specialty steelmaker with core exposure to auto, stainless/alloys, magnets, and industrial components.
Mid-Term strategy centers on higher-margin growth products (SPE stainless, magnets, aerospace forgings) supported by new VAR and forging capacity.
Valuations &amp; Risks: Trades at a forward P/E compressing to ~5× by FY28E, but cyclical demand swings and raw material volatility remain key risks.


Daido Steel – Specialty Strength with Strategic Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-special-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. 
The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   


Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daido-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10140:1" rel="noopener">Daido Steel (5471 JP)</a> on 30 November announced a Tender Offer to buy shares in subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-seisen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8034:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Seisen (5659 JP)</a> to take them to 50.1-51.0%. They have 43% now.</li>
<li>This is a small tender offer, but the subsidiary jumped through the corporate governance independent committee hoops and comes up "neutral" on a price well below mid-point DCF.</li>
<li>It's an interesting small-cap partial offer to start 2022. Will likely trade tight.</li>
</ul>



Daido Steel (5471 JP) on 30 November announced a Tender Offer to buy shares in subsidiary Nippon Seisen (5659 JP) to take them to 50.1-51.0%. They have 43% now.
This is a small tender offer, but the subsidiary jumped through the corporate governance independent committee hoops and comes up "neutral" on a price well below mid-point DCF.
It's an interesting small-cap partial offer to start 2022. Will likely trade tight.


Daido Steel Partial Tender Offer to Go to 50+% on Nippon Seisen (5659) Subsidiary

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous <em>Int’l Compass </em>(10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.</p>

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Japan

DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets specialty steel products for automobiles, electronics, and construction use.  The Company also provides engineering services for industrial furnaces and waste disposal facilities, and develops various types of alloy metals.

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Daido Steel (5471 JP)

Daido Steel – Specialty Strength with Strategic Upside

Japanese specialty steelmaker focusing on high-margin growth products like stainless steel, magnets, and aerospace forgings, but faces risks from...

Rahul Jain

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

Daido Steel Partial Tender Offer to Go to 50+% on Nippon Seisen (5659) Subsidiary

Daido Steel announced a small tender to buy 7-8% of Nippon Seisen to take them from 43% to 50-51% of the shares. That is about 22% of Real World...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Daido Steel – Specialty Strength with Strategic Upside

​Japanese specialty steelmaker focusing on high-margin growth products like stainless steel, magnets, and aerospace forgings, but faces risks from...

Rahul Jain

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

Daido Steel Partial Tender Offer to Go to 50+% on Nippon Seisen (5659) Subsidiary

Daido Steel announced a small tender to buy 7-8% of Nippon Seisen to take them from 43% to 50-51% of the shares. That is about 22% of Real World...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Japanese specialty steelmaker focusing on high-margin growth products like stainless steel, magnets, and aerospace forgings, but faces risks from...