Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.</li>
<li>2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.</li>
<li>Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.
2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.
Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

<ul>
<li>Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.</li>
<li>Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.</li>
<li>Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.</li>
</ul>


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.
Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.
Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.


Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

​Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...