Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Active Funds make tentative moves back in to Japanese equities after a 5-year decline.</li>
<li>Buying seen in Daiichi Sankyo, Keyence Corp and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with Japan capturing $1.3bn of new fund investment since September 2022.</li>
<li>Ownership levels still near record lows, with clear potential for further ownership growth from here.</li>
</ul>


Global Active Funds make tentative moves back in to Japanese equities after a 5-year decline.
Buying seen in Daiichi Sankyo, Keyence Corp and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with Japan capturing $1.3bn of new fund investment since September 2022.
Ownership levels still near record lows, with clear potential for further ownership growth from here.


Japan: Early Signs of a Potential Re-Weight

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.</li>
<li>Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.</li>
<li>Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.
Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.
Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

<ul><li>Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.</li><li>Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.</li><li>Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.</li></ul>

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.</li>
</ul>


SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the Nikkei225 and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.
The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 
With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the Nikkei225 with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.


SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
<li>We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.
This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.
We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.


Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

Japan: Early Signs of a Potential Re-Weight

Global Equity Funds make tentative moves back in to Japan after a 5-year decline. Ownership levels remain near record lows, so potential for...

Steven Holden

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

With increased interest in Climate investing, market participants can use the SGX listed futures to get a similar risk/reward as the Nikkei225 with...

Brian Freitas

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Early Signs of a Potential Re-Weight

Global Equity Funds make tentative moves back in to Japan after a 5-year decline. Ownership levels remain near record lows, so potential for...

Steven Holden

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

​Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

With increased interest in Climate investing, market participants can use the SGX listed futures to get a similar risk/reward as the Nikkei225 with...

Brian Freitas

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...