HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.</li>
<li>The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/knowledge-atlas-technology-joint-stock-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a> and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> are also riskier names in the current market environment. </li>
</ul>


The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.
The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and MiniMax (100 HK) are also riskier names in the current market environment. 


HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The H-share IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-transsion-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58740:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (2636 HK)</a>, a smart device and mobile Internet service provider, appears to provide some upside at the maximum IPO price.</li>
<li>Its earnings have recovered sharply in 1H26, and for FY25-28F, it is expected to achieve an EPS CAGR of 30.2% as it expands its market and products.</li>
<li>We value it at 12.5x FY26 PER, 10% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-electronics-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">TCL Electronics (1070 HK)</a>, implying a fair price of HK$43.73, or 12.7% upside.  </li>
</ul>


The H-share IPO of Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (2636 HK), a smart device and mobile Internet service provider, appears to provide some upside at the maximum IPO price.
Its earnings have recovered sharply in 1H26, and for FY25-28F, it is expected to achieve an EPS CAGR of 30.2% as it expands its market and products.
We value it at 12.5x FY26 PER, 10% discount to TCL Electronics (1070 HK), implying a fair price of HK$43.73, or 12.7% upside.  


Shenzhen Transsion (2636 HK) IPO: Still Some Upside

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) / Equity Capital Markets

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) (2476 HK)

<ul>
<li>We update our March A+H Connect study with 18 ADDs since mid-March, 10 after stabilization and 8 on listing day, against 31 earlier events.</li>
<li>After stabilization ends, H-shares now outperform A-shares for about 20 trading days after the Connect ADD, the reverse of the March pattern.</li>
<li>On listing-day ADDs, Southbound holdings built faster than on ADDs after stabilization, yet most H-shares fell below the IPO price within 20 trading days.</li>
</ul>


We update our March A+H Connect study with 18 ADDs since mid-March, 10 after stabilization and 8 on listing day, against 31 earlier events.
After stabilization ends, H-shares now outperform A-shares for about 20 trading days after the Connect ADD, the reverse of the March pattern.
On listing-day ADDs, Southbound holdings built faster than on ADDs after stabilization, yet most H-shares fell below the IPO price within 20 trading days.


HK A+H Connect Inclusion Event Study: 3Q2026 Update

Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kinwong, a printed circuit board (PCB) maker, raised HKD 4,960.6m (USD 632.4m) from its global offering and will list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company's fundamentals and the deal terms.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company's fundamentals and the deal terms. </li>
</ul>


Kinwong, a printed circuit board (PCB) maker, raised HKD 4,960.6m (USD 632.4m) from its global offering and will list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company's fundamentals and the deal terms.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company's fundamentals and the deal terms. 


Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

China

Dajin Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells wind power equipment. The Company produces wind turbine frames, offshore wind turbine frames and infrastructures, thermal boiler island steel structures, and more. Dajin Heavy Industry also provides offshore oil and gas rigs industrial structures.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dajin Heavy Industry (1081 HK)

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Transsion (2636 HK) IPO: Still Some Upside

Shenzhen Transsion's IPO is priced for an 12.7% upside. 1H26 earnings have recovered, and the 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 30.2%. Conservative...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK A+H Connect Inclusion Event Study: 3Q2026 Update

We add 18 A+H Connect ADDs since March. H-shares now outperform A-shares after ADDs that follow stabilization, while listing-day ADDs draw heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Kinwong (景旺电子) IPO Trading

Kinwong raised USD 632m in net proceeds to list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026. We are cautious on debut performance as the A-H premium is now...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare Pharma, Victory Giant Technology, ABC, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

​The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Transsion (2636 HK) IPO: Still Some Upside

Shenzhen Transsion's IPO is priced for an 12.7% upside. 1H26 earnings have recovered, and the 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 30.2%. Conservative...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK A+H Connect Inclusion Event Study: 3Q2026 Update

We add 18 A+H Connect ADDs since March. H-shares now outperform A-shares after ADDs that follow stabilization, while listing-day ADDs draw heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Kinwong (景旺电子) IPO Trading

Kinwong raised USD 632m in net proceeds to list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026. We are cautious on debut performance as the A-H premium is now...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare Pharma, Victory Giant Technology, ABC, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...