IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Weilong Delicious / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weilong-delicious-ipo-initiation-tasty-bite" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60830" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite</a>, we stated that Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation.</li>
<li>However, the 1H21 update is mixed. The top-line growth remains strong but at the cost of margins. Margin headwinds are likely to persist in the short term. </li>
<li>In a weak HKEx IPO market, we think that Weilong’s mixed fundamentals will likely struggle to gain investor enthusiasm.   </li>
</ul>


In Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite, we stated that Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation.
However, the 1H21 update is mixed. The top-line growth remains strong but at the cost of margins. Margin headwinds are likely to persist in the short term. 
In a weak HKEx IPO market, we think that Weilong’s mixed fundamentals will likely struggle to gain investor enthusiasm.   


<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a> is a leading spicy snack food company in China. It is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable companies in the snack food industry in China, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.  Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion, according to press reports. Weilong’s shareholders include CPE, Hillhouse, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, Yunfeng Capital and Sequoia Capital China. Generation Z and the millennials are the primary consumers in the snack food industry in China, as they account for 38.2% of China’s population but 69.2% of snack food consumption, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The retail sales value of China’s spicy snack food industry is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2025 and reach RMB257.0 billion by 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. As the leading snack food brand as measured by brand awareness among those at or under the age of 25, Weilong is well-placed to tap this market opportunity. <div class="content-highlight">Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation. Weilong is also relatively unscathed from the spate of recent regulations that have decimated other sectors, such as the technology and education sector. On balance, we think that Weilong’s fundamentals are attractive.</div>

Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) is a leading spicy snack food company in China. It is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable companies in the snack food industry in China, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.  Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion, according to press reports. Weilong’s shareholders include CPE, Hillhouse, Tencent (700 HK), Yunfeng Capital and Sequoia Capital China. Generation Z and the millennials are the primary consumers in the snack food industry in China, as they account for 38.2% of China’s population but 69.2% of snack food consumption, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The retail sales value of China’s spicy snack food industry is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2025 and reach RMB257.0 billion by 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. As the leading snack food brand as measured by brand awareness among those at or under the age of 25, Weilong is well-placed to tap this market opportunity. Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation. Weilong is also relatively unscathed from the spate of recent regulations that have decimated other sectors, such as the technology and education sector. On balance, we think that Weilong’s fundamentals are attractive.

Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wh-group-stock-plummets-as-ousted-son-drags-pigs-into-the-mud" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56282" rel="noopener">WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud</a>. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

The shares of WH Group (288 HK) to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. WDG sells products across three categories: seasoned flour products,  vegetable products and Bean-based and other products. According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), in terms of retail sales value in 2020, WDG ranked first among all spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 5.7%, and ranked first in each of the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snack product categories.Overall revenue growth has been strong at 23% YoY in 2019 and 21.7% in 2020 driven both by an increase in volumes and prices over 2019-20. Vegetable products have been the fastest growing category with a CAGR of 98% over FY18-20.Along with strong revenue growth, WDG gross profit growth has been even stronger, with gross profit growing by 25-31% YoY over 2018-20. PAT grew at 25-38% over 2018-20.

Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. WDG sells products across three categories: seasoned flour products,  vegetable products and Bean-based and other products. According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), in terms of retail sales value in 2020, WDG ranked first among all spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 5.7%, and ranked first in each of the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snack product categories.Overall revenue growth has been strong at 23% YoY in 2019 and 21.7% in 2020 driven both by an increase in volumes and prices over 2019-20. Vegetable products have been the fastest growing category with a CAGR of 98% over FY18-20.Along with strong revenue growth, WDG gross profit growth has been even stronger, with gross profit growing by 25-31% YoY over 2018-20. PAT grew at 25-38% over 2018-20.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fujian-based Dali Foods operates multiple brands in the categories of food and beverage;</li>
<li>Since its foundation, the company has pursued a simple "copycat" strategy combined with an emphasis on lower-tier regions;</li>
<li>Despite a persistently high return on capital, we do not see a moat that is wide enough and difficult to cross in this rapidly-evolving and fiercely-competitive consumer goods market in China.</li>
</ul>


Fujian-based Dali Foods operates multiple brands in the categories of food and beverage;
Since its foundation, the company has pursued a simple "copycat" strategy combined with an emphasis on lower-tier regions;
Despite a persistently high return on capital, we do not see a moat that is wide enough and difficult to cross in this rapidly-evolving and fiercely-competitive consumer goods market in China.


Dali Foods: Low-Price Copycat With A Persistent High-Return Character But A Too Narrow Moat

China

Dali Foods Group is a leading Chinese multinational food and beverage manufacturing company. It specializes in a wide range of consumer products including biscuits, breads, cakes, pastries, chips, and ready-to-drink beverages such as soy milk, energy drinks, and herbal teas. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Hui'an County, Quanzhou, Fujian, China.

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Dali Foods Group (05M GR)

Weilong Delicious IPO: Mixed Update

Weilong is pre-marketing for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion. The PHIP discloses a mixed 1H21 update as strong top-line growth came at the...

Arun George

Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite

Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion. Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and...

Arun George

WH Group Post-Tender Outlook

Buyback Offer shares are returned. Now we look forward. Of course, we did before in assuming participation rates. The stock is cheap on accretion...

Travis Lundy

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers

Weilong Delicious Global, a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. It recently undertook a pre-IPO...

Sumeet Singh

Dali Foods: Low-Price Copycat With A Persistent High-Return Character But A Too Narrow Moat

We appreciate the differentiated strategy and the persistently high return on capital, but the moat appears too narrow for this rapidly-evolving...

Urbem Capital

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