IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. </li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.</li>
<li>We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. 
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.
We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.


Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

<ul>
<li>The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5.00 cash per share which is in line with the offer from the Connect consortium. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%. </li>
<li>The Board has decided to engage with Morrison/Brookfield but not with the Connect consortium. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away, according to press reports. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the emergence of another bidder cannot be ruled out as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>’s recurring revenues, cash flows and strong balance sheet is enticing for private equity bidders.  </li>
</ul>


The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5.00 cash per share which is in line with the offer from the Connect consortium. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%. 
The Board has decided to engage with Morrison/Brookfield but not with the Connect consortium. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away, according to press reports. 
Nevertheless, the emergence of another bidder cannot be ruled out as Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)’s recurring revenues, cash flows and strong balance sheet is enticing for private equity bidders.  


Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

<ul>
<li>The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00 cash per share, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison &amp; Co indicative offer of A$4.50.</li>
<li>Brookfield has joined Morrison &amp; Co as joint bidders. This development suggests another round of bids for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>The A$5m fee to break the Morrison/Brookfield exclusivity pales in comparison to Connect consortium’s A$340m premium to the Morrison/Brookfield offer. Expect Connect consortium to secure due diligence access. </li>
</ul>


The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00 cash per share, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison &amp; Co indicative offer of A$4.50.
Brookfield has joined Morrison &amp; Co as joint bidders. This development suggests another round of bids for Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU).
The A$5m fee to break the Morrison/Brookfield exclusivity pales in comparison to Connect consortium’s A$340m premium to the Morrison/Brookfield offer. Expect Connect consortium to secure due diligence access. 


Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>Back on the 19 July, systems integrator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/empired-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9406:1" rel="noopener">Empired Ltd (EPD AU)</a> entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02396546-6A1041326?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capgemini-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28633:1" rel="noopener">Capgemini SE (CGEMY US)</a> at a price of A$1.35/share, a 64.6% premium to last close, and an all-time high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Empired's board. CEO Russell Baskerville, with 5.8% of Empired's outstanding shares, intended to vote in favour of the Scheme.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02425467-6A1051843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 25 October, with expected implementation on the 16 November. The Independent Expert concluded that the Scheme is fair and reasonable.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This looks done. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 19 July, systems integrator Empired Ltd (EPD AU) entered into a Scheme with Capgemini SE (CGEMY US) at a price of A$1.35/share, a 64.6% premium to last close, and an all-time high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Empired's board. CEO Russell Baskerville, with 5.8% of Empired's outstanding shares, intended to vote in favour of the Scheme.


The Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 25 October, with expected implementation on the 16 November. The Independent Expert concluded that the Scheme is fair and reasonable.


This looks done. 


More below the fold.


Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<p>Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.&nbsp;

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Australia

Data#3 Limited provides Information Technology (IT) solutions to business and government markets in Australia.  These solutions integrate equipment and software from leading suppliers with Data#3's own design, management, installation and support services including procurement, recruitment and application services.

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Data#3 Ltd (DTL AU)

Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away. The emergence of another bidder still cannot be...

Arun George

Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison & Co indicative offer of A$4.50. Expect a bidding war. At last close,...

Arun George

Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October

Trading relatively tight at a 1.5%/11.3% gross/annualised spread. That's reasonable, but this is not a super liquid arb situation.

David Blennerhassett

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

Uniti has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends. A done deal with annualised spread to a...

Arun George

Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away. The emergence of another bidder still cannot be...

Arun George

Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison & Co indicative offer of A$4.50. Expect a bidding war. At last close,...

Arun George

Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October

Trading relatively tight at a 1.5%/11.3% gross/annualised spread. That's reasonable, but this is not a super liquid arb situation.

David Blennerhassett

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian...

Sam Ferraro