Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.</li>
<li>Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.</li>
</ul>


Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.
Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.
Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.


Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

<ul>
<li>ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.</li>
<li>China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.</li>
<li>We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.</li>
</ul>


ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.
China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.
We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.


Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I</li>
<li>Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data</li>
</ul>


There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans
Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I
Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data


US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

<ul>
<li>Singapore domestic credit growth is expanding upward over several months, where there are positive implications for net interest income growth</li>
<li>Growth of local loans was negative YoY in past months last year, so the delta pick up of net interest income can be strong</li>
<li>Accelerating growth likely means better credit metrics, and this is what MAS data shows too; this means that credit costs can come in, improving profit growth</li>
</ul>


Singapore domestic credit growth is expanding upward over several months, where there are positive implications for net interest income growth
Growth of local loans was negative YoY in past months last year, so the delta pick up of net interest income can be strong
Accelerating growth likely means better credit metrics, and this is what MAS data shows too; this means that credit costs can come in, improving profit growth


Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

A month ago 8 Asian sectors exhibited reviving EPS est; now 16 do. CN, India, Thailand declining, KR, TW, SGP, Phils rising. KR & TW Tech &...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN underperformance could continue as rising Chinese exports put pressure on domestic cos' revenue & margins, potentially driving a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Domestic credit growth in Singaporeis uplifting for several months, the rate of growth acceleration in latest month, is strong. Positive...

Daniel Tabbush

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

A month ago 8 Asian sectors exhibited reviving EPS est; now 16 do. CN, India, Thailand declining, KR, TW, SGP, Phils rising. KR & TW Tech &...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

​ASEAN underperformance could continue as rising Chinese exports put pressure on domestic cos' revenue & margins, potentially driving a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Domestic credit growth in Singaporeis uplifting for several months, the rate of growth acceleration in latest month, is strong. Positive...

Daniel Tabbush

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

ASEAN underperformance could continue as rising Chinese exports put pressure on domestic cos' revenue & margins, potentially driving a...