Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector</li>
<li>A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.</li>
<li>We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket</li>
</ul>


We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket


Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>FNArena's Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.</li><li>Today's idea is Paladin Energy.</li></ul>

FNArena's Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.Today's idea is Paladin Energy.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 22nd June, published on the 26th June.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Steel"; the largest industry net decrease was A$1.9bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$1.3bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:917:1" rel="noopener">CSL (CSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aristocrat-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10303:1" rel="noopener">Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio (RIO AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 22nd June, published on the 26th June.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Steel"; the largest industry net decrease was A$1.9bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$1.3bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CSL (CSL AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU), BHP (BHP AU),Rio (RIO AU), and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU).


Aussie Shorts [22 June 2026]: CSL, Cochlear, Aristocrat Leisure, BHP, Rio, Guzman Y Gomez

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD47.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, CSL, Regis Resources, Cochlear.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD47.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, CSL, Regis Resources, Cochlear.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 19th): Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, CSL, Regis Resources, Cochlear

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Australia

Deep Yellow Limited is an advanced stage uranium exploration company progressing its core Namibian projects.

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Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL AU)

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Treasure Chest: Paladin Energy

FNArena's Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts. Today's idea is Paladin Energy.

FNArena

Aussie Shorts [22 June 2026]: CSL, Cochlear, Aristocrat Leisure, BHP, Rio, Guzman Y Gomez

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CSL (CSL AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU), BHP (BHP AU), Rio (RIO...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 19th): Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, CSL, Regis Resources, Cochlear

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, CSL, Regis Resources,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

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