European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

<ul>
<li>DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.</li>
<li>Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.</li>
<li>The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.</li>
</ul>


DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.
Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.
The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.


Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> had predicted a series of changes in UK100 (a.k.a. F100) and UK250 (aka F250) and all predicted changes came to pass. F250 saw one extra change.</li>
<li>There will be one more ad hoc announcement today. We think the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tritax-eurobox-plc-3e9443bd-b52d-4565-9083-99325aa64446" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44137:1" rel="noopener">Tritax Eurobox (EBOX LN)</a> will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobico-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22059:1" rel="noopener">Mobico Group (MCG LN)</a>. </li>
<li>There were two ADDs in F250 which are VERY much worth looking at. Janaghan had addressed these in prior weeks as well. Those two names really stand out.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had predicted a series of changes in UK100 (a.k.a. F100) and UK250 (aka F250) and all predicted changes came to pass. F250 saw one extra change.
There will be one more ad hoc announcement today. We think the replacement for Tritax Eurobox (EBOX LN) will be Mobico Group (MCG LN). 
There were two ADDs in F250 which are VERY much worth looking at. Janaghan had addressed these in prior weeks as well. Those two names really stand out.


UK100 and UK250 Index Rebals: Some Interesting Trades

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd December 2024).</li>
<li>Based on the current numbers, we see three for the F100 index and three or more other changes for the F250 index in December 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd December 2024).
Based on the current numbers, we see three for the F100 index and three or more other changes for the F250 index in December 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Final Trading Day; Announcement Tomorrow!

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.</li>
<li>The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.
The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

United Kingdom

Deliveroo PLC provides software solutions. The Company offers an online food delivery platform which allows users to order meals from partner restaurants, grocery stores, and other food suppliers. Deliveroo serves customers worldwide.

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Deliveroo (ROO LN)

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

DoorDash’s offer for Deliveroo highlights strategic value and improved fundamentals, with manageable regulatory risks and a potential for competing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UK100 and UK250 Index Rebals: Some Interesting Trades

The Footsie 100/250 rebalance was announced yesterday. Excellent hit rate by the team. As expected, two names are kind of special and they deserve...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Final Trading Day; Announcement Tomorrow!

There are multiple names close to the border and depending on how prices move today, these names can get involved in index changes or miss out on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from the last insight have outperformed the F250 index by 10% since 24th October 2024. It might be time to revise...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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