AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.</li>
<li>HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.</li>
<li>ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.</li>
</ul>


Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.
HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.
ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.


Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.</li>
<li>Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.</li>
<li>CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.
Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.
CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.


Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

<ul>
<li>Inventory growth slowed sharply to 8% QoQ after two quarters of 30%+ builds, easing concerns of accelerating balance-sheet expansion.</li>
<li>Margins recovered from the Q1 charge and remain structurally strong.</li>
<li>Accounts receivable rose to $38.5B, with ratio trends improving but absolute levels remaining elevated.</li>
</ul>


Inventory growth slowed sharply to 8% QoQ after two quarters of 30%+ builds, easing concerns of accelerating balance-sheet expansion.
Margins recovered from the Q1 charge and remain structurally strong.
Accounts receivable rose to $38.5B, with ratio trends improving but absolute levels remaining elevated.


NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

<ul>
<li>Inventory has been compounding at 30% sequentially, outpacing revenue growth in recent quarters.</li>
<li>Rising forward inventory coverage raises questions about whether the product is clearing end demand at the same pace it is shipped.</li>
<li>Accounts receivable, cash conversion, and warranty reserves may matter as much as the revenue number tonight.</li>
</ul>


Inventory has been compounding at 30% sequentially, outpacing revenue growth in recent quarters.
Rising forward inventory coverage raises questions about whether the product is clearing end demand at the same pace it is shipped.
Accounts receivable, cash conversion, and warranty reserves may matter as much as the revenue number tonight.


NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, Ascender Capital issued a <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000001.000178091.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PR Times release</a> raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Ascender, which first published its concerns <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?redeem=aHR0cHM6Ly8xZHJ2Lm1zL2IvYy83OWRiY2U2MzllMGVhMjY2L0lRQXFhaXItRGdQVFE3T21WVFlmZGVjREFWRHczbnM5TloyRmJqb2loamY2QThBP2U9TXA5djFk&amp;cid=79DBCE639E0EA266&amp;id=79DBCE639E0EA266%21sfe2a6a2a030e43d3b3a655361f75e703&amp;parId=79DBCE639E0EA266%21s52e69e76ff9946efbf1b4dc36d3cca83&amp;o=OneUp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on its website</a> on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.</li>
<li>Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.</li>
</ul>


Today, Ascender Capital issued a PR Times release raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP).
Ascender, which first published its concerns on its website on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.
Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.


MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

​Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Meets the Bar; Working Capital Remains Elevated

​Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Enters Earnings With Strong Margins but Rising Inventory Intensity

​Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Inventory growth slows to 8% QoQ, easing balance-sheet expansion concerns. Margins strong, accounts receivable up to $38.5B.

Inventory growth outpacing revenue raises concerns about product demand, with a focus on accounts receivable and cash conversion during the earnings.