Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. </li>
<li>2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.</li>
<li>On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.</li>
</ul>


Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. 
2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.
On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.


PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27537:1" rel="noopener">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tko-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40463:1" rel="noopener">TKO Group Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding</li>
<li>
Key Industry Outlook Perspective -- HP's ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs... Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities</li>
<li>
Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle -- Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value</li>
</ul>



HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding

Key Industry Outlook Perspective -- HP's ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs... Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities

Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle -- Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value


PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Computex focused heavily on AI and featured a lot of liquid cooling technology</li><li>Nvidia keynote at Computex introduced NVLink Fusion for custom CPUs, targeting vendors like Fujitsu</li><li>Debate arose over the relevance of NVLink Fusion for hyperscalers who are moving towards custom silicon to avoid reliance on Nvidia.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Computex focused heavily on AI and featured a lot of liquid cooling technologyNvidia keynote at Computex introduced NVLink Fusion for custom CPUs, targeting vendors like FujitsuDebate arose over the relevance of NVLink Fusion for hyperscalers who are moving towards custom silicon to avoid reliance on Nvidia.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 119: Computex, Google I/O, Dell Tech World, and more

<ul>
<li>
ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.</li>
<li>
PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by &gt;30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.</li>
<li>
On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.</li>
</ul>



ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.

PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by &gt;30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.

On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.


PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs' Next Edge AI Shift

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

HP's commercial PC growth remains strong, with AI PC penetration expanding through NVIDIA chips like the ZGX AI Station, signaling a step-change...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Episode 119: Computex, Google I/O, Dell Tech World, and more

AI technology, liquid cooling, and Nvidia's NVLink Fusion networking solution were key themes at Computex, sparking industry discussions about...

The Circuit

PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs' Next Edge AI Shift

ASUS surpasses 1Q25 expectations, warns of tariff risks and possible PC demand dip in 2H25 due to pricing uncertainty. PC segment growth strong,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

​Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

​HP's commercial PC growth remains strong, with AI PC penetration expanding through NVIDIA chips like the ZGX AI Station, signaling a step-change...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Episode 119: Computex, Google I/O, Dell Tech World, and more

AI technology, liquid cooling, and Nvidia's NVLink Fusion networking solution were key themes at Computex, sparking industry discussions about...

The Circuit

PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs' Next Edge AI Shift

​ASUS surpasses 1Q25 expectations, warns of tariff risks and possible PC demand dip in 2H25 due to pricing uncertainty. PC segment growth strong,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

HP's commercial PC growth remains strong, with AI PC penetration expanding through NVIDIA chips like the ZGX AI Station, signaling a step-change...

ASUS surpasses 1Q25 expectations, warns of tariff risks and possible PC demand dip in 2H25 due to pricing uncertainty. PC segment growth strong,...