AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.</li>
<li>With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.</li>
<li>If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.
With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.
If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.


The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's operating cash fell to $15.4B from $27.4B last quarter, even as net income climbed to $26.4B.</li>
<li>Receivables jumped to $5.7B with Days Sales Outstanding at 54 days, while accrued liabilities flipped to a $4B drag.</li>
<li>The balance sheet shows a company pushing more product out than cash is coming in; the predicament arising from Nvidia's revenue booking model.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's operating cash fell to $15.4B from $27.4B last quarter, even as net income climbed to $26.4B.
Receivables jumped to $5.7B with Days Sales Outstanding at 54 days, while accrued liabilities flipped to a $4B drag.
The balance sheet shows a company pushing more product out than cash is coming in; the predicament arising from Nvidia's revenue booking model.


Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges</li>
<li>A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC</li>
<li>SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges
A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC
SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

<ul>
<li>ASUS experienced record 2Q25 revenue driven by 30–40% YoY growth in gaming and commercial PCs, supported by a new GPU sales strength and enterprise market expansion.</li>
<li>AI servers held mid-teens revenue share for ASUS; margin pressure from tariffs and FX expected to ease after 3Q.</li>
<li>Strong gaming and commercial PC momentum could signal PC upgrade activity in response to AI PCs, offering positive read-through for Dell and HPQ's upcoming results end-August.</li>
</ul>


ASUS experienced record 2Q25 revenue driven by 30–40% YoY growth in gaming and commercial PCs, supported by a new GPU sales strength and enterprise market expansion.
AI servers held mid-teens revenue share for ASUS; margin pressure from tariffs and FX expected to ease after 3Q.
Strong gaming and commercial PC momentum could signal PC upgrade activity in response to AI PCs, offering positive read-through for Dell and HPQ's upcoming results end-August.


PC Monitor: ASUS's Gaming & Commercial Strength Signal AI PC Cycle; Positive Read for Dell, HP

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. </li>
<li>2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.</li>
<li>On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.</li>
</ul>


Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. 
2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.
On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.


PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: ASUS's Gaming & Commercial Strength Signal AI PC Cycle; Positive Read for Dell, HP

ASUS sees record revenue in 2Q25 from gaming and commercial PCs, with PC upgrade activity providing positive color ahead of Dell and HPQ results...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

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Market Cap (USDm)

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The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

​Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

​Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

​TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: ASUS's Gaming & Commercial Strength Signal AI PC Cycle; Positive Read for Dell, HP

​ASUS sees record revenue in 2Q25 from gaming and commercial PCs, with PC upgrade activity providing positive color ahead of Dell and HPQ results...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

​Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

ASUS sees record revenue in 2Q25 from gaming and commercial PCs, with PC upgrade activity providing positive color ahead of Dell and HPQ results...

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...