Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In a data center, hundreds of thousands of GPUs need constant shared access to training data, checkpoints, embeddings, model outputs, and agent memory, pushing AI labs (xAI), neoclouds (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe), and hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google) toward VAST Data’s separated compute/shared flash architecture—which maps well to GPU clusters with many machines reading and writing to one data pool—versus high-speed storage systems designed for supercomputing (Weka, DDN) and reliable storage for basic IT (Pure, Dell, NetApp).</li>
<li>As AI shifts from chatbots to agents, massive amounts of unsupervised tool calls, generated code, and persistent agent memory require multimodal filesystems that handle PDFs, audios, and video rather than just structured data, and these compounding amounts of data must be stored and accessible via fast access, driving storage demand up and flash memory prices up 8x, a tailwind behind infrastructure that makes storage more efficient and works with low-cost or retrofitted flash.</li>
<li>The upside opportunity is to serve as the unifying AI software operating system that powers the infrastructure layer of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s AI five-layer cake, abstracting away the GPUs &amp; hardware underneath for the developers building models &amp; applications above, expanding the market from model companies &amp; neoclouds into the long tail of enterprises building their own secure, access-controlled agentic applications.</li>
</ul>


In a data center, hundreds of thousands of GPUs need constant shared access to training data, checkpoints, embeddings, model outputs, and agent memory, pushing AI labs (xAI), neoclouds (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe), and hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google) toward VAST Data’s separated compute/shared flash architecture—which maps well to GPU clusters with many machines reading and writing to one data pool—versus high-speed storage systems designed for supercomputing (Weka, DDN) and reliable storage for basic IT (Pure, Dell, NetApp).
As AI shifts from chatbots to agents, massive amounts of unsupervised tool calls, generated code, and persistent agent memory require multimodal filesystems that handle PDFs, audios, and video rather than just structured data, and these compounding amounts of data must be stored and accessible via fast access, driving storage demand up and flash memory prices up 8x, a tailwind behind infrastructure that makes storage more efficient and works with low-cost or retrofitted flash.
The upside opportunity is to serve as the unifying AI software operating system that powers the infrastructure layer of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s AI five-layer cake, abstracting away the GPUs &amp; hardware underneath for the developers building models &amp; applications above, expanding the market from model companies &amp; neoclouds into the long tail of enterprises building their own secure, access-controlled agentic applications.


Renen Hallak, CEO Of VAST Data, On AI Agents Creating Infinite Storage Demand

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Smartphones. 6 months ago, most forecasts were expecting +2% unit growth in 2026. Now -13% YoY. Memory’s share of component costs (BOM) has surged from ~15% to ~35%. </li>
<li>Computers. 6 months ago, very rosy forecasts expecting +8% unit growth in 2026 because Win10 end-of-life. Now -11% YoY. Memory share of notebook BOM up from 10% to above 20%. </li>
<li>Game consoles. 6 months ago flat. Now -4% YoY. Expect Consumer Electronics to be hit, in general. </li>
</ul>


Smartphones. 6 months ago, most forecasts were expecting +2% unit growth in 2026. Now -13% YoY. Memory’s share of component costs (BOM) has surged from ~15% to ~35%. 
Computers. 6 months ago, very rosy forecasts expecting +8% unit growth in 2026 because Win10 end-of-life. Now -11% YoY. Memory share of notebook BOM up from 10% to above 20%. 
Game consoles. 6 months ago flat. Now -4% YoY. Expect Consumer Electronics to be hit, in general. 


Demand Destruction – when Massive Memory Price Hikes Kill Demand

<ul>
<li>Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. </li>
<li>AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).</li>
<li>On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. </li>
</ul>


Memory prices gone ballistic since 4Q25. 1Q26 DRAM/NAND price increased ~80% QoQ. In 2Q ~60% QoQ. In Jan-26, Trend was forecasting total Memory value would increase by 130% in 2026. 
AI-HBM growth will continue – low risk here. We know Nvidia, AMD, Google roadmap; we know HBM roadmap and specs, volumes and revenue indications from firms (Jensen $1 trillion revenue).
On the conventional side, sharp price hikes (DRAM has doubled over a year) lead to demand destruction. IDC and others are revising down PC, Smartphone, Consumer Elec forecasts. Big cuts. 


Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last night, Maven <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260318221306/en/Maven-Publishes-Letter-on-Bain-Sponsored-Management-Buyout-Offer-for-MCJ---Highlighting-Significant-Undervaluation-and-Governance-Concerns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued a letter</a> regarding the unfair terms of the Bain-sponsored MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. Maven has a stake of close to 3%.</li>
<li>Largely in line with Ascender’s view, Maven highlights six issues with the MBO. Maven estimates the intrinsic value at JPY2,800. Most of Maven’s criticisms are valid.</li>
<li>Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to engage, and the timing is strange. </li>
</ul>


Last night, Maven issued a letter regarding the unfair terms of the Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). Maven has a stake of close to 3%.
Largely in line with Ascender’s view, Maven highlights six issues with the MBO. Maven estimates the intrinsic value at JPY2,800. Most of Maven’s criticisms are valid.
Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to engage, and the timing is strange. 


MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

<ul>
<li>Since announcing the offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>’s shares have consistently traded above the Bain-sponsored MBO offer of JPY2,200. The offer closes on 24 March. </li>
<li>On 16 February, Ascender Capital <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?redeem=aHR0cHM6Ly8xZHJ2Lm1zL2IvYy83OWRiY2U2MzllMGVhMjY2L0lRQXFhaXItRGdQVFE3T21WVFlmZGVjREFWRHczbnM5TloyRmJqb2loamY2QThBP2U9TXA5djFk&amp;cid=79DBCE639E0EA266&amp;id=79DBCE639E0EA266%21sfe2a6a2a030e43d3b3a655361f75e703&amp;parId=79DBCE639E0EA266%21s52e69e76ff9946efbf1b4dc36d3cca83&amp;o=OneUp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised concerns</a> about the process and sought better terms. However, Ascender has failed to increase its stake above the 5% substantial shareholder threshold. </li>
<li>This is a done deal, as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM record date has been set, and FMR has sold out.   </li>
</ul>


Since announcing the offer, MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)’s shares have consistently traded above the Bain-sponsored MBO offer of JPY2,200. The offer closes on 24 March. 
On 16 February, Ascender Capital raised concerns about the process and sought better terms. However, Ascender has failed to increase its stake above the 5% substantial shareholder threshold. 
This is a done deal, as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM record date has been set, and FMR has sold out.   


MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Renen Hallak, CEO Of VAST Data, On AI Agents Creating Infinite Storage Demand

You founded VAST Data in 2016. What was the founding insight behind the company...

Sacra

Demand Destruction – when Massive Memory Price Hikes Kill Demand

Forecasts for smartphones, computers, and game consoles have drastically shifted in the past 6 months, with memory costs surging and unit growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...

Nicolas Baratte

MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to entertain...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

Shares trade above terms, but this is a done deal as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Renen Hallak, CEO Of VAST Data, On AI Agents Creating Infinite Storage Demand

You founded VAST Data in 2016. What was the founding insight behind the company...

Sacra

Demand Destruction – when Massive Memory Price Hikes Kill Demand

​Forecasts for smartphones, computers, and game consoles have drastically shifted in the past 6 months, with memory costs surging and unit growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Revenue Growth: Where Is the Peak?

​Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...

Nicolas Baratte

MCJ (6670 JP): Maven Belatedly Joins Ascender’s Activism Cause

Despite Maven joining the cause, the probability of a bump remains low as no activist is a 5%+ shareholder, the Board has declined to entertain...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

Shares trade above terms, but this is a done deal as no activist has emerged as a substantial shareholder, peers have marginally re-rated, the EGM...

Arun George

Forecasts for smartphones, computers, and game consoles have drastically shifted in the past 6 months, with memory costs surging and unit growth...

Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DRAM/NAND prices increasing by 80% in 1Q26 and 60% in 2Q. AI-HBM growth on track, but sharp price hikes are...