Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The HSI finished the day at 24,340, up 127 pts or 0.52%, rebounding from morning losses as investors digested stronger-than-expected China trade data.</li><li>June exports and imports both exceeded forecasts, pointing to resilient external demand.</li><li>China recorded its second-largest trade surplus on record at USD125.6bn, supported by robust global demand for AI-related hardware and firmer semiconductor prices.</li></ul>

The HSI finished the day at 24,340, up 127 pts or 0.52%, rebounding from morning losses as investors digested stronger-than-expected China trade data.June exports and imports both exceeded forecasts, pointing to resilient external demand.China recorded its second-largest trade surplus on record at USD125.6bn, supported by robust global demand for AI-related hardware and firmer semiconductor prices.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In 1H26, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a moderate correction but highly distorted signal, declining by ~3,450 points from 26,338 to 22,881 between Jan 2 and Jun 30, 2026.</li><li>However, we believe the headline index performance fails to capture the true market dynamics, particularly the ongoing AI-driven structural rally across AI foundation model, semiconductor memory and PCB names.</li><li>As a result, we believe that HSI is no longer a reliable benchmark for capturing “growth beta” in Hong Kong equities.</li></ul>

In 1H26, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a moderate correction but highly distorted signal, declining by ~3,450 points from 26,338 to 22,881 between Jan 2 and Jun 30, 2026.However, we believe the headline index performance fails to capture the true market dynamics, particularly the ongoing AI-driven structural rally across AI foundation model, semiconductor memory and PCB names.As a result, we believe that HSI is no longer a reliable benchmark for capturing “growth beta” in Hong Kong equities.

Market Strategy – When the Index Falls Behind – HSI Distortion in an AI-Driven Market

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.</li>
<li>The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/knowledge-atlas-technology-joint-stock-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a> and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> are also riskier names in the current market environment. </li>
</ul>


The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.
The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and MiniMax (100 HK) are also riskier names in the current market environment. 


HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

<ul>
<li>The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-huizhou-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48083:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant (2476 HK)</a> are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a> is large in size but not as fast in growth. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delton-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47605:1" rel="noopener">Delton Technology (1989 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  </li>
</ul>


The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and Victory Giant (2476 HK) are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is large in size but not as fast in growth. Delton Technology (1989 HK)'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  


HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is on track to complete $40 billion in IPOs this year, with demand coming from unicorn tech companies and A-share firms seeking dual listings. </li>
<li>AI, new energy technology, and healthcare will be the leading IPO sectors.  There are 450 companies that have filed for IPOs in Hong Kong in 2026.</li>
<li>With IPO oversubscriptions extremely high, investors are buying peer companies in the same industry, benefiting from spillover or halo effects.  </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is on track to complete $40 billion in IPOs this year, with demand coming from unicorn tech companies and A-share firms seeking dual listings. 
AI, new energy technology, and healthcare will be the leading IPO sectors.  There are 450 companies that have filed for IPOs in Hong Kong in 2026.
With IPO oversubscriptions extremely high, investors are buying peer companies in the same industry, benefiting from spillover or halo effects.  


HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Follow the Leader Strategy (April 2026)

Hong Kong

Delton Technology (Guangzhou) Inc. manufactures and distributes printed circuit board products. The Company produces high speed server boards, large data memory circuit boards, high frequency mixing boards, security circuit boards, and more. Delton Technology (Guangzhou) provides its products for communications, automotive electronics, medical, and other areas.

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Delton Technology (1989 HK)

Quam Morning Note

The HSI finished the day at 24,340, up 127 pts or 0.52%, rebounding from morning losses as investors digested stronger-than-expected China trade...

Quam Securities

Market Strategy – When the Index Falls Behind – HSI Distortion in an AI-Driven Market

In 1H26, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a moderate correction but highly distorted signal, declining by ~3,450 points from 26,338 to 22,881...

Quam Securities

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Follow the Leader Strategy (April 2026)

KB Laminates (1888 HK) has gained 90% since our April report on the following-the-leader strategy. Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) holds a 70% stake...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quam Morning Note

The HSI finished the day at 24,340, up 127 pts or 0.52%, rebounding from morning losses as investors digested stronger-than-expected China trade...

Quam Securities

Market Strategy – When the Index Falls Behind – HSI Distortion in an AI-Driven Market

In 1H26, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a moderate correction but highly distorted signal, declining by ~3,450 points from 26,338 to 22,881...

Quam Securities

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

​The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

​H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Follow the Leader Strategy (April 2026)

KB Laminates (1888 HK) has gained 90% since our April report on the following-the-leader strategy. Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) holds a 70% stake...

David Mudd

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...