Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The correct long-term thing to do is, and the right short-term trade don't match. Best to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ (6670 JP)</a> above the tender offer price or at the offer price.</li>
<li>At 6.1x forward EV/EBITDA - and ~80% discount to NAV - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> is not expensive.</li>
<li>An interesting fact pattern appears like it might be a setup for a significant change in capital structure for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel Mfg (5423 JP) T</a> related to the former CEO</li>
</ul>


The correct long-term thing to do is, and the right short-term trade don't match. Best to sell MCJ (6670 JP) above the tender offer price or at the offer price.
At 6.1x forward EV/EBITDA - and ~80% discount to NAV - AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) is not expensive.
An interesting fact pattern appears like it might be a setup for a significant change in capital structure for Tokyo Steel Mfg (5423 JP) T related to the former CEO


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, AviChina, Tokyo Steel Mfg, 3SBio

<ul>
<li>Bain extends the TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. This still needs a bump.</li>
<li>I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>: arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.</li>
</ul>


Bain extends the TOB for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). This still needs a bump.
I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.
Re: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

<ul>
<li>If you like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.</li>
<li>Current NAV levels for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.</li>
</ul>


If you like Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.
Current NAV levels for Prosus NV (PRX NA) are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in Tencent (700 HK)).
China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.25bn, post the buyback completion in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>Post the buyback, the deal represents 2.7 days of ADV and 1.7% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>We looked at the deal background in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates and compare it to other past large deals.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.25bn, post the buyback completion in Nintendo (7974 JP) .
Post the buyback, the deal represents 2.7 days of ADV and 1.7% of shares outstanding.
We looked at the deal background in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates and compare it to other past large deals.


Aequitas: Nintendo Placement - Buy Back Done, No Relative Correction. Relatively Small Vs Past Deals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Four shareholders are looking to sell upto 37.6m shares (JPY 338bn; US$2.17bn) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> in a secondary offering at a 3-5% discount to the close on pricing date.</li>
<li>To reduce the impact of the offering and improve capital efficiency, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> will buy back up to 14m shares via ToSTNeT-3 paying a maximum of JPY 100bn.</li>
<li>The increase in the free float will be offset by a decrease in the number of outstanding shares, and the passive flows will be relatively small.</li>
</ul>


Four shareholders are looking to sell upto 37.6m shares (JPY 338bn; US$2.17bn) of Nintendo (7974 JP) in a secondary offering at a 3-5% discount to the close on pricing date.
To reduce the impact of the offering and improve capital efficiency, Nintendo (7974 JP) will buy back up to 14m shares via ToSTNeT-3 paying a maximum of JPY 100bn.
The increase in the free float will be offset by a decrease in the number of outstanding shares, and the passive flows will be relatively small.


Nintendo (7974 JP) Secondary Offering: Buyback Absorbs Some Selling; Passive Impact Limited

Japan

DeNA Co., Ltd. operates social media site, auction and shopping web site such as Mobage-town and Bidders.  DeNA also provides mobile-related services such as mobile game and community site.

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DeNA (2432 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, AviChina, Tokyo Steel Mfg, 3SBio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Aequitas: Nintendo Placement - Buy Back Done, No Relative Correction. Relatively Small Vs Past Deals

A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.25bn, post the buyback completion, in Nintendo. In this note, we talk about the updates and...

Nicholas Tan

Nintendo (7974 JP) Secondary Offering: Buyback Absorbs Some Selling; Passive Impact Limited

Four shareholders are looking to raise up to US$2.17bn by selling some of their Nintendo shares. There could be more behind. Nintendo will buy back...

Brian Freitas

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