Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently launched a public consultation regarding a Code of Conduct for ESG ratings providers and ESG data product providers in Singapore.</li>
<li>It is the right approach for Singapore – a <em>voluntary</em> best-practices framework furthering one of the world's most credible "green" economies, not a regulatory force-fix of something broken.</li>
<li>No surprise ratings methodology changes. No <em>en masse</em> upgrades/downgrades. No acute shocks to the system. Just slow and steady progress for ESG investing and finance in Singapore.</li>
</ul>


The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently launched a public consultation regarding a Code of Conduct for ESG ratings providers and ESG data product providers in Singapore.
It is the right approach for Singapore – a voluntary best-practices framework furthering one of the world's most credible "green" economies, not a regulatory force-fix of something broken.
No surprise ratings methodology changes. No en masse upgrades/downgrades. No acute shocks to the system. Just slow and steady progress for ESG investing and finance in Singapore.


Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LSEG’s share price has performed poorly in 2025 due to AI disruption concerns relating to its data and analytics business; we believe LSEG can fend off this risk of disruption</li>
<li>In our view, LSEG’s data and analytics segment harbours a defensive moat shielding it from potential disrupters; we believe LSEG shares are deep value relative to its DM exchange peers</li>
<li>We keep our buy on flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise – despite FMX - in its trading and post-trading operations dedicated to interest rates and other products</li>
</ul>


LSEG’s share price has performed poorly in 2025 due to AI disruption concerns relating to its data and analytics business; we believe LSEG can fend off this risk of disruption
In our view, LSEG’s data and analytics segment harbours a defensive moat shielding it from potential disrupters; we believe LSEG shares are deep value relative to its DM exchange peers
We keep our buy on flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise – despite FMX - in its trading and post-trading operations dedicated to interest rates and other products


Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.</li>
<li>The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.</li>
</ul>


Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.
The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.
For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.


Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Germany

Deutsche Boerse AG provides a variety of stock exchange introduction, trading, and operational services to institutions and private investors. The Company offers electronic trading systems for buying and selling of securities on stock exchanges in Europe.  Deutsche Boerse offers indices such as DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and XTF, as well as trading in options and futures.

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Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR)

Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

Singapore's Code of Conduct for ESG ratings is more light-handed than other regulation-based approaches, but therein lies the "less risk and more...

Kyle Rudden

Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...

Victor Galliano

Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

DB1’s proposed €8.80/share takeover of Allfunds creates a pan-European fund-infrastructure leader, adds cost synergies, and offers investors an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

Singapore's Code of Conduct for ESG ratings is more light-handed than other regulation-based approaches, but therein lies the "less risk and more...

Kyle Rudden

Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

​LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...

Victor Galliano

Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

DB1’s proposed €8.80/share takeover of Allfunds creates a pan-European fund-infrastructure leader, adds cost synergies, and offers investors an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...