Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st</li>
<li>Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting </li>
<li>For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous</li>
</ul>


Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting 
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous


May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | U.S. grocery demand weakens as volume declines outweigh inflation • E-commerce & Logistics | Chinese platforms facing increasing legal & regulatory risks • Corporate Agenda | week 30 - 33</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | U.S. grocery demand weakens as volume declines outweigh inflation • E-commerce & Logistics | Chinese platforms facing increasing legal & regulatory risks • Corporate Agenda | week 30 - 33

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 July (Ahold Delhaize | E-commerce & Logistics | Corporate agenda)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.Ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.

Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.Ownership in Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin outlook • ASML Holding / ASM Int’l / Besi | SEMI strongly increases global semiconductor equipment sales forecast • TomTom | reiterates FY26 outlook as well as return to revenue growth from 2027 onwards • Bnode | political deadlock over proposed savings on management contract with bpost • Bnode | bpost launches personal locker rentals via its Bbox network • E-commerce and Logistics | MediaMarkt partners with Wolt for flash delivery in Germany</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin outlook • ASML Holding / ASM Int’l / Besi | SEMI strongly increases global semiconductor equipment sales forecast • TomTom | reiterates FY26 outlook as well as return to revenue growth from 2027 onwards • Bnode | political deadlock over proposed savings on management contract with bpost • Bnode | bpost launches personal locker rentals via its Bbox network • E-commerce and Logistics | MediaMarkt partners with Wolt for flash delivery in Germany

Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

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Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 July (Ahold Delhaize | E-commerce & Logistics | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | U.S. grocery demand weakens as volume declines outweigh inflation • E-commerce & Logistics | Chinese...

The IDEA!

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

Over the last 6-months, cash flows into EMEA Industrials have been among the highest across all sectors, with inflows of $1bn, more buyers than...

Steven Holden

bpost SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | impairment on Russian assets looks inevitable • ASML Holding | strongly raises FY26 net sales and gross margin...

The IDEA!

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