Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.</li>
<li>There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>



Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.</li>
<li>REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields <em>may</em> be approaching their peak.</li>
<li>The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. </li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.
REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields may be approaching their peak.
The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. 


Australia REITs:  Asset Deflation Bear Market

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a> has entered into an SIA with Charter Hall and PGGM. The offer of A$1.90 and maximum FY22 distribution of 4.67 cents implies a total of A$1.9467.   </li>
<li>The scheme booklet will be dispatched in May with an implementation date in late July. The offer price is attractive in terms of multiples and security prices. </li>
<li>At the last close and for the July-end implementation date, the gross and annualised spread of the total offer is 1.4% and 4.2%, respectively.   </li>
</ul>



Irongate Group (IAP AU) has entered into an SIA with Charter Hall and PGGM. The offer of A$1.90 and maximum FY22 distribution of 4.67 cents implies a total of A$1.9467.   
The scheme booklet will be dispatched in May with an implementation date in late July. The offer price is attractive in terms of multiples and security prices. 
At the last close and for the July-end implementation date, the gross and annualised spread of the total offer is 1.4% and 4.2%, respectively.   


Irongate Enters into an SIA with Charter Hall and PGGM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Soho China, Toshiba, China Logistics, Invesco Office, Yantian's Backlog

<div>
<p>Back on the 11 May,  real estate manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apn-property-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3730:1" rel="noopener">Apn Property Group (APD AU)</a> announced it had entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dexus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:403:1" rel="noopener">Dexus Property (DXS AU)</a> at a price of A$0.915/share (including a A$0.015/share dividend), a 50% premium to last close, and a decade-plus high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of APN directors. In addition, APN directors holding 33% of APN's outstanding shares intend to vote in favour of the Scheme.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Separately, APN Chairman Chris Aylward had granted Dexus a call option over 19.9% of APN's shares, exercisable in the event a competing proposal.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This was, and is, a done deal.</p>
<div>
<p>The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02385052-3A568916?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 27 July, with an expected implementation date of the 13 August.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is fair and reasonable in the absence of a superior proposal. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>
</div>


Back on the 11 May,  real estate manager Apn Property Group (APD AU) announced it had entered into a Scheme with Dexus Property (DXS AU) at a price of A$0.915/share (including a A$0.015/share dividend), a 50% premium to last close, and a decade-plus high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of APN directors. In addition, APN directors holding 33% of APN's outstanding shares intend to vote in favour of the Scheme.


Separately, APN Chairman Chris Aylward had granted Dexus a call option over 19.9% of APN's shares, exercisable in the event a competing proposal.


This was, and is, a done deal.

The Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 27 July, with an expected implementation date of the 13 August.


The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is fair and reasonable in the absence of a superior proposal. 


More below the fold.



APN Property (APD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed

Australia

Dexus provides real estate services. The Company manages and invests in a portfolio of diversified properties, including office and industrial buildings, retail shopping centers, and car parks. Dexus serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Dexus Property (DXS AU)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index. Passive trackers need to sell 13.9m shares (5.1x ADV) of CMW but short...

Brian Freitas

Australia REITs: Asset Deflation Bear Market

The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the overall REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year...

David Blennerhassett

Irongate Enters into an SIA with Charter Hall and PGGM

Irongate has entered into an SIA with Charter Hall/PGGM. The offer of A$1.90 and the max dist of 4.67 cents implies a total of A$1.9467. For the...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Soho China, Toshiba, China Logistics, Invesco Office, Yantian's Backlog

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

APN Property (APD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed

Done deal and trading tight at a 1.1%/7.2% gross/annualised spread. Given the spread and APN's low liquidity, this insight is bearish.

David Blennerhassett

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