Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.</li>
<li>The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.</li>
<li>A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…</li>
</ul>


The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.
The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.
A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…


Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>'s US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders.</li>
<li>The key remaining condition precedent is obtaining the required regulatory approvals related to the listing rules of NASDAQ and the Cayman Islands. There are no Chinese regulatory approvals required.</li>
<li>The conditions precedent should be satisfied shortly. At the current price and for an end-March close, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 6.4% and 45.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



O2Micro International (OIIM US)'s US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders.
The key remaining condition precedent is obtaining the required regulatory approvals related to the listing rules of NASDAQ and the Cayman Islands. There are no Chinese regulatory approvals required.
The conditions precedent should be satisfied shortly. At the current price and for an end-March close, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 6.4% and 45.6%, respectively. 


O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>’s EGM to vote on the US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited is on 31 January 2023.</li>
<li>Shareholders representing two-thirds of shares need to approve the deal. As rollover shareholders represent 16.92% of voting rights, 59.88% of disinterested shareholders must vote YES to meet the two-thirds threshold.</li>
<li>While peers have re-rated, the offer is attractive and there are no competing bids. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 11.6%.   </li>
</ul>



O2Micro International (OIIM US)’s EGM to vote on the US$5.00 per ADS privatisation offer from FNOF Precious Honour Limited is on 31 January 2023.
Shareholders representing two-thirds of shares need to approve the deal. As rollover shareholders represent 16.92% of voting rights, 59.88% of disinterested shareholders must vote YES to meet the two-thirds threshold.
While peers have re-rated, the offer is attractive and there are no competing bids. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 11.6%.   


O2Micro (OIIM US) Privatisation Vote on 31 January

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A bit over a year ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> announced its transaction to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dialog-semiconductor-plc-664a1f83-2a21-4690-a91f-fb971832e7ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21607:1" rel="noopener">Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR)</a> for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.</li>
<li>In September, Renesas announced a "Progress Update" covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual "shareholder return" policy.</li>
<li>This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.</li>
</ul>


A bit over a year ago Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) announced its transaction to buy Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for €4.8bn (roughly ¥624bn) and the transaction closed end-August 2021.
In September, Renesas announced a "Progress Update" covering various business segments, expectations for supply in the sector, and eventual "shareholder return" policy.
This past week the Nikkei carried an article talking about a possible stock buyback later this year. I explore.


Renesas (6723 JP) - On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation... Watch for Buybacks

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1623555011053&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=6723&amp;oth=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=R&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100LHP9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th</a> and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/212/826/original/Screenshot+2021-06-13+at+8.44.07+PM.png?1623588287" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="212826"></figure></section>This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the 15th and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

United Kingdom

Dialog Semiconductor designs and manufactures highly integrated, mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) optimized for low-power applications in mobile devices, the Internet of Things (IoT), automotive systems, and industrial markets. Their product portfolio includes battery management systems, Bluetooth low energy and Wi-Fi connectivity solutions, AC/DC and DC/DC power conversion ICs, LED drivers, and audio codecs. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Reading, United Kingdom.

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Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR)

Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading...

Sean Maher

O2Micro (OIIM US): US$5 Privatisation Approved, Spread Remains Wide

The remaining conditions precedent related to regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. At the current price and for an end-March close,...

Arun George

O2Micro (OIIM US) Privatisation Vote on 31 January

The 11.6% spread reflects the need for 59.88% of disinterested shareholders to vote YES to meet the two-thirds threshold. However, the offer is...

Arun George

Renesas (6723 JP) - On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation... Watch for Buybacks

Renesas (6723) saw INCJ sell down last year. Absorption has been OK not great. The company has hinted at being able to start buybacks, and recent...

Travis Lundy

Renesas - The Aftermath of the Offering

Renesas is at the Offering Price. Rather than selling the break I would be inclined to buy any major dip on break price vs global peers. There is a...

Travis Lundy

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