Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> merger should complete mid-November while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>'s acquisition could complete by end-November.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.</li>
<li>Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)/ Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) merger should complete mid-November while Steadfast (SDF AU)'s acquisition could complete by end-November.
There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.
Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4th September 2026.</li>
<li>There are 24 ADDs and 21 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4th September 2026.
There are 24 ADDs and 21 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity ASX Sep26 Results: 92% of Predictions Correct; More Changes for ASX 300 than We Expected

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are several ADDs/DELs expected across these indices with some names still close to the border.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> deal is likely to trigger a wide range of passive flows across multiple index families.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.
There are several ADDs/DELs expected across these indices with some names still close to the border.
The Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) - Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) deal is likely to trigger a wide range of passive flows across multiple index families.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Vault-Genesis Index Implications & Many Regular High-Impact Changes

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.&nbsp;

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.&nbsp;

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

Australia

Dicker Data Limited is an IT product distributor based in Australia.

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S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

The Genesis/Vault merger and the Steadfast acquisition are expected to complete in Nov. That leads to adhoc index inclusions and other flows. Then...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep26 Results: 92% of Predictions Correct; More Changes for ASX 300 than We Expected

Most of the confirmed index changes have multiple days of volume to trade. The ASX 300 ADDs/DELs have comparatively insignificant flow sizes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Vault-Genesis Index Implications & Many Regular High-Impact Changes

We see 43 index changes for the ASX family during the regular index review in September 2026. Most of these index changes have decent flow size and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian...

Sam Ferraro

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to a multi-decade low of 2.25%. This...

Sam Ferraro

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)