'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>GAMING PAYABLES</strong> - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As <em><strong>@matt_levine</strong></em>observed yesterday:-</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/505/original/2021-03-11_10-33-14.png?1615426510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193505"></figure></section><p><strong>APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN</strong> - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:</p><ol>
<li><strong>Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)</strong></li>
<li><strong> Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)</strong></li>
<li><strong>1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)</strong></li>
</ol><p>We have excluded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/508/original/2021-03-11_11-04-24.png?1615428279" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193508"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

GAMING PAYABLES - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As @matt_levineobserved yesterday:-APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:
Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)
 Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)
1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)
We have excluded Sony (6758 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP), and Japan Post (6178 JP) from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the DETAIL section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late night 1 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> released a document showing their hand on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> TOB they proposed. It is astutely structured, in price and context.</li>
<li>It's complicated because it expects different possibilities with two headline numbers - ¥3,384/share if KDDI doesn't sign up, and ¥3,500/share if they do. That's a bit misleading.</li>
<li>They expect a Kakaku response within 4 weeks and a deal launch by end-Sep. The big question here is if EQT+DG stump up to match, or if they play hardball. </li>
</ul>


Late night 1 July, LY (4689 JP) released a document showing their hand on the Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) TOB they proposed. It is astutely structured, in price and context.
It's complicated because it expects different possibilities with two headline numbers - ¥3,384/share if KDDI doesn't sign up, and ¥3,500/share if they do. That's a bit misleading.
They expect a Kakaku response within 4 weeks and a deal launch by end-Sep. The big question here is if EQT+DG stump up to match, or if they play hardball. 


[Japan M&A] Bain/LY Show Their Cards on Kakaku.com (They're Good Cards Brent)

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>While the bidding war for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> goes towards the showdown, the stock remains semi-paralized since early June (right when EQT and Bain/LY started to compete).</li>
<li>In this insight we want to evaluate the next possible trend direction and targets, using our quantitative forecast model.</li>
<li>We have to say upfront that<strong> the upside looks limited</strong> (unless the bidders formally structure binding offers above current market levels).</li>
</ul>


While the bidding war for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) goes towards the showdown, the stock remains semi-paralized since early June (right when EQT and Bain/LY started to compete).
In this insight we want to evaluate the next possible trend direction and targets, using our quantitative forecast model.
We have to say upfront that the upside looks limited (unless the bidders formally structure binding offers above current market levels).


Kakaku.com (2371 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Bain/LY Counter-Offer: Pop or Drop?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, the <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC04CCA0U6A600C2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> will not accept Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a>'s higher offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, as it is not feasible.</li>
<li>Digital Garage’s reasoning is not credible. The most likely reason is that, unlike the EQT offer, Bain/LY are not allowing reinvestment to take a 20% stake in the offeror.</li>
<li>While a setback, Bain/LY can succeed if it secures support from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and Oasis. Irrespective of Digital Garage’s stance, EQT will likely need to bump to succeed.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, the Nikkei reported that Digital Garage (4819 JP) will not accept Bain/LY (4689 JP)'s higher offer for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), as it is not feasible.
Digital Garage’s reasoning is not credible. The most likely reason is that, unlike the EQT offer, Bain/LY are not allowing reinvestment to take a 20% stake in the offeror.
While a setback, Bain/LY can succeed if it secures support from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Oasis. Irrespective of Digital Garage’s stance, EQT will likely need to bump to succeed.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Digital Garage Moves to Thwart Bain/LY

<ul>
<li>On 12 May, EQT launched an LBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> with the agreement of two large holders. With 38% in the bag, EQT wanted another 17.5% at ¥3,000.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> (20.5%) and KDDI (~17.55%) agreed to sell later (¥2,439). The bidder figured passive funds would vote with management post-deal. DG would reinvest in the back end.</li>
<li>Bain and LY Corp announced a possible overbid at ¥3,232 without due dili. Then they got due dili. Media articles suggest Bain/LY have put forth a legally binding bid.</li>
</ul>


On 12 May, EQT launched an LBO for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) with the agreement of two large holders. With 38% in the bag, EQT wanted another 17.5% at ¥3,000.

Digital Garage (4819 JP) (20.5%) and KDDI (~17.55%) agreed to sell later (¥2,439). The bidder figured passive funds would vote with management post-deal. DG would reinvest in the back end.
Bain and LY Corp announced a possible overbid at ¥3,232 without due dili. Then they got due dili. Media articles suggest Bain/LY have put forth a legally binding bid.


[Japan M&A] Likely Bain/LY Overbid for Kakaku.com - STILL Not a Done Deal

Japan

Digital Garage, Inc. is a web solution provider and a business incubator.  The Company provides Internet communications and strategy planning, electronic commerce solution tools, web creation and enhancement, and Internet advertising consulting services.

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Digital Garage (4819 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting...

Campbell Gunn

[Japan M&A] Bain/LY Show Their Cards on Kakaku.com (They're Good Cards Brent)

Bain+LY have made a bid and Kakaku finds it is a "Qualified Competing Tender Offer Proposal" which means they have asked EQT to match Bain's bid....

Travis Lundy

Kakaku.com (2371 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Bain/LY Counter-Offer: Pop or Drop?

The bidding war for Kakaku.com has left the price stagnant since June. We see limited short-term upside (unless the bidders increase their offers)....

Nico Rosti

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Digital Garage Moves to Thwart Bain/LY

The Nikkei reports that Bain/LY’s binding offer is around JPY3,500, a 16.7% premium to EQT’s JPY3,000 offer and a 3.2% premium to the last close....

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Likely Bain/LY Overbid for Kakaku.com - STILL Not a Done Deal

The original "acceptance" and support/recommendation by Kakaku was highly qualified. DG may not be interested in selling but I expect Bain+LY are...

Travis Lundy

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