IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>China Merchants Capital (CMC) <a href="https://en.cmcapital.com.cn/list/669" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosed</a> a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.</li>
<li>Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.</li>
<li>CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.</li>
</ul>


China Merchants Capital (CMC) disclosed a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire Chindata Group (CD US) at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.
Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.
CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.


Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>’s 3Q22 results beat both revenue and adjusted EBITDA consensus estimates. Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.</li>
<li>Chindata continues to attract rumours of takeover interest, most recently from China Merchants. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating make it a target. </li>
<li>A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>’s multiple implied by its founder’s offer (at US$8.20), would imply Chindata’s price of US$8 per ADS.  </li>
</ul>



Chindata Group (CD US)’s 3Q22 results beat both revenue and adjusted EBITDA consensus estimates. Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.
Chindata continues to attract rumours of takeover interest, most recently from China Merchants. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating make it a target. 
A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s multiple implied by its founder’s offer (at US$8.20), would imply Chindata’s price of US$8 per ADS.  


2023 High Conviction: Chindata's Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NTT's global data center business has 6% market share with annual revenue growth of 20% that is twice the industry average</li>
<li>We have updated our model and valuation summary to reflect the transfer of NTT Ltd, which operates the GDC business, into NTT Data</li>
<li>Our valuation remains unchanged although we have lowered our target price ¥4,500 to ¥4,450 for payment of the H1 dividend.  NTT remains a top pick in our coverage</li>
</ul>


NTT's global data center business has 6% market share with annual revenue growth of 20% that is twice the industry average
We have updated our model and valuation summary to reflect the transfer of NTT Ltd, which operates the GDC business, into NTT Data
Our valuation remains unchanged although we have lowered our target price ¥4,500 to ¥4,450 for payment of the H1 dividend.  NTT remains a top pick in our coverage


NTT (Buy) - Investor Day Highlights Global Data Center Business

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a> disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).</li>
<li>The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/mbk-partners-is-said-to-weigh-rival-bid-for-chinese-data-center-firm-vnet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. </li>
<li>The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares</li>
</ul>



21Vianet Group (VNET US) disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).
The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. Bloomberg reported on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. 
The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares


VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/mbk-partners-is-said-to-weigh-rival-bid-for-chinese-data-center-firm-vnet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>. Considerations are at a preliminary stage.</li>
<li>A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   </li>
<li>Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&amp;A activity.     </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for 21Vianet Group (VNET US). Considerations are at a preliminary stage.
A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   
Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&amp;A activity.     


United States

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. owns, acquires, repositions, and manages technology-related real estate.  The Company's properties contain applications and operations critical to the day-to-day operations of technology industry tenants and corporate enterprise data center tenants.  Digital's property portfolio is located throughout the United States and in England.

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Digital Realty Trust (DLR US)

Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer

CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to...

Arun George

2023 High Conviction: Chindata's Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target

Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating...

Arun George

NTT (Buy) - Investor Day Highlights Global Data Center Business

NTT’s data center business is growing 20%+/year before currency tailwinds as the NTT Data integration kicks off. We have updated our model and SOTP...

Kirk Boodry

VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

The offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, with the data centre M&A activity levels remaining elevated, the current mispricing of the shares will...

Arun George

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity. Buy some...

Arun George

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